Trump is using tariffs as a weapon of diplomacy, even coercion on topics entirely unrelated to global trade.
Are the leaders of G20 nations with their own domestic audiences really going to roll over in order to give the new president a win?
They could choose to wait out the inevitable impact of Trump applying a 25% increase on the cost of two-fifths of US imports on US consumers and inflation.
What is also clear is that the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary will not temper the tariff push.
Amid the battle for his nomination he went out of his way to acknowledge the power of tariffs as a tool that had been pioneered by Alexander Hamilton himself, the first ever US Treasury secretary.
Earlier this year he had suggested tariffs might be used tactically, but the main tool for the US rejuvenation of manufacturing would be a cheaper dollar.
Europe and the UK have been spared for now. But it is important to reiterate that these moves are not even the real bulk of the tariff policy outlined by Trump.
He wants to fundamentally change the global economic map, and reduce China and Europe’s trade surplus with the US which he views as “ripping off America”.
The world is far more complicated now, however, than these binary economic relationships. The US is undoubtedly powerful enough to start rebalancing world trade. Push things too far, however, especially with G7 and G20 allies, and the US might find itself rather too isolated.