“Uncertainty” is the most common word you will hear if you ask a business in Northern Ireland about how they are feeling about the prospect of the United States imposing tariffs.
They are one of the cornerstones of US President Donald Trump’s second term and have left other countries scrambling to respond on an almost daily basis.
That uncertainty was underlined when 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium coming into the US went into effect overnight – with the EU responding by saying it will impose counter-measures on €26bn (£21.9bn, $28.3bn) worth of US goods.
The UK has said the tariffs are disappointing and Westminster will push for a trade deal – but, in the meantime, what of Northern Ireland?
It is somewhere that could be uniquely affected by the impact of both EU and UK tariffs – but businesses say they are trying to stay positive.
Politicians and businesspeople are in Washington DC this week in the run-up to St Patrick’s Day, making the case for US investment and trade in Northern Ireland.
For Bloc Blinds the potential of a changed trading relationship with the US brings different challenges.
The company has its headquarters in Magherafelt in County Londonderry but recently also opened a manufacturing site in Texas.
Blinds produced there and sold to the US market would not be subject to tariffs, but managing director Cormac Diamond said this did not mean he could take his eye off the ball.
“We have to be cognisant of the challenges of tariffs because in spite of doing our production in Dallas we are still serviced by a supply chain that is affected by tariffs,” he said.
“That said, since we are doing most of the added value within the Dallas plant itself we certainly have reduced exposure to tariffs.
“We’re pretty confident that we are in a secure position regarding tariffs, but tariffs can affect things both directly and indirectly. There may be some unforeseen events that we have not planned for.”
Mr Diamond said he was positive about the future of doing business in the US.
“The size of the market certainly excited us when we decided to embark on the US journey.
“There is a very positive approach to business in the US and you can see it in evidence of buildings, infrastructure, development etcetera.”
“Because it is so uncertain we are almost having to plough ahead regardless and just take that into consideration, when we have a bit more concrete information,” he said.
“It is very much about trying to keep the business going as normal, plan as much as we can for the future but not make anything too concreted because there is that level of uncertainty.”
The United States is a big market for Belfast watchmakers Nomadic, accounting for 22% of its sales.
Peter McAuley, the company’s founder, said there was huge potential for it to continue to grow there.
“It feels like we’ve barely scratched the surface of the potential, there is a really strong market,” he said.
“It’s not necessarily concentrated around the traditional Irish hubs that you might expect, it’s quite spread out across the entire country.”
Mr McAuley said that while he hoped Nomadic would be “a little bit protected” because of the luxury nature of the company’s products, he believed any tariffs would have an impact on sales.
Mr McAuley added that the business environment in the US still felt positive and he remained confident about the future of the trading relationship.
In 2022, Northern Ireland companies exported goods to the US with a value of £1.9bn.
That was the third biggest external market for goods behind GB (£11bn) and Ireland (£4.6bn).
Unlike the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland will be hitting the US with tariffs.
That is because of its unique – and complicated – post-Brexit trading status.
Northern Ireland is part of the UK’s customs territory and its exports are covered by the UK’s trade agreements.
Therefore exports from Northern Ireland are subject to the tariffs imposed on the UK by the US or any other country.
However, Northern Ireland is also effectively part of the European Union’s single market for goods and enforces EU customs rules at its ports.
That arrangement, called the Windsor Framework, was agreed by the UK and EU as a way of maintaining an open trade border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after Brexit.
It has implications for how imports are treated as they arrive at Northern Ireland’s ports from outside the EU.
A key concept of the framework is whether goods arriving in NI are “at risk” of entering the EU.
Goods not at risk are covered by UK tariff rules; goods at risk are covered by EU tariff rules
All goods subject to EU “trade defence measures”, such as the retaliatory tariffs on the US, are always considered at risk.
Therefore when the EU’s tariffs apply next month Northern Ireland businesses will have to pay them.