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Here’s where things stand on Saturday 21 June 2025:
Fighting
- Drones and missiles launched by Russia overnight have damaged energy infrastructure in central Ukraine’s Kremenchuk district in Poltava, said local military authorities.
- One person was injured in the attack, according to Volodymyr Kohut, the region’s military governor, who did not provide further details on the extent of the damage.
- Russia had targeted the district’s refinery, according to a report by online news outlet Strana.ua.
Politics and diplomacy
- Ukraine and Russia exchange more prisoners of war, officials from both countries said, the second swap in two days under an agreement struck in Turkiye earlier this month. All the captured soldiers were wounded, ill or under 25 years old. Neither side said how many soldiers had been freed.
- At Russia’s flagship economic forum in Saint Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin said he did not “rule out” his forces taking control of Ukraine’s northeastern city of Sumy as part of efforts to create a buffer zone along the border.
- The Sumy region is not one of the regions Moscow has formally annexed, although Russian forces have recently made inroads there for the first time in three years, with Putin claiming his troops had advanced up to 12km (7 miles) in the region.
- In a string of hawkish remarks, Putin also appeared to repeat his denial of Ukrainian statehood. Ukraine said Putin’s comments showed “disdain” for the peace process.
- The German military considers Russia to be an “existential risk” to the country and Europe, according to a Spiegel news magazine report that cites a new Bundeswehr strategy paper. Russia is verifiably preparing for a conflict with NATO, particularly by strengthening forces in western Russia “at the borders with NATO,” the report cites the strategy paper as saying. Germany can only counter this threat “with a consistent development of military and society-wide capabilities,” the document concludes.
- Putin has reaffirmed Moscow’s opposition to the spread of weapons of mass destruction, including any potential acquisition by Iran. Putin told Sky News Arabia that Russia supports Iran’s right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, emphasising that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has found no evidence suggesting Tehran seeks to build nuclear weapons. Putin also stated that Russia is prepared to assist Iran in the development of its civilian nuclear programme.
Economy
- At the economic forum in St Petersburg, Putin also urged officials not to let Russia fall into recession “under any circumstances”, as some in his own government warned of a hit to economic growth. Economists have warned for months of a slowdown in the Russian economy, with the country posting just 1.4 percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025, the weakest pace in two years.
- A decision by the OPEC+ group of leading global oil producers to speed up production now looks far-sighted and justified amid the Middle East conflict, said Igor Sechin, head of Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft, at the forum. Sechin also said that there will be no oil glut in the long term despite the production rise, and that the European Union seeks to reduce Russia’s oil cap to $45 to improve the profitability of its purchases, not to cut Russia’s budget revenues.
32 nations but only one man matters – Nato’s summit is all about Trump
32 nations but only one man matters – Nato’s summit is all about Trump
Nato summits tend to be “pre-cooked”, not least to present a united front.
Secretary General Mark Rutte has already settled on the menu for their meeting at The Hague: one that will avoid a row with Nato’s most powerful member, the US.
A commitment to increase defence spending by European allies is the dish that President Donald Trump wants served – and that’s exactly what he’ll be getting. Though there will inevitably be the added ingredients of compromise and fudge.
Nor will the summit be able to paper over the cracks between Trump and many of his European allies on trade, Russia and the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
The US president, whose mantra is America First, is not a huge fan of multinational organisations.
He has been highly critical of Nato too – even questioning its very foundation of collective defence. In Trump’s first term, at his first Nato summit, he berated European allies for not spending enough and owing the US “massive amounts of money”.
On that message he has at least been consistent.
Mark Rutte, who has a good relationship with the US president, has worked hard to give him a win.
The summit takes place at the World Forum in The Hague over two days, on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
Now the main discussions will last just three hours and the summit statement is being reduced to five paragraphs, reportedly because of the US president’s demands.
Trump is one of 32 leaders from the Western defensive alliance who are coming, along with the heads of more than a dozen partner countries.
Nato summit security so far cost €183.4m (£155m; $210m)
Dutch police have mounted their biggest ever security operation for the most expensive Nato summit so far, at a cost of €183.4m (£155m; $210m).
Some have suggested the brevity of the summit is in part to cater to the US president’s attention span and dislike of long meetings. But a shorter summit with fewer subjects discussed will, more importantly, help hide divisions.
Ed Arnold, of the defence think tank Rusi, says Trump likes to be the star of the show and predicts he’ll be able to claim that he’s forced European nations to act.
In truth he’s not the first US president to criticise allies’ defence spending. But he’s had more success than most. Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to Nato, admits that some European governments do not like the way Trump’s gone about it – demanding that allies spend 5% of their GDP on defence.
Europe still only accounts for 30% of Nato’s total military spending. Volker says many Europeans now admit they that “we needed to do this, even if it’s unfortunate that it took such a kick in the pants”.
Some European nations are already boosting their defence spending to 5% of their GDP. Most are the countries living in close proximity to Russia – such as Poland, Estonia and Lithuania.
It’s not just Trump who’s been piling on the pressure. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing a response.
But in reality many Nato members will struggle to meet the new target. A few haven’t met the goal of 2%, set more than a decade ago.
Allies to increase their core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP
Rutte’s compromise formula is for allies to increase their core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% towards defence-related expenditure.
But the definition of defence-related expenditure appears to be so vague that it might be rendered meaningless. Rutte says it could include the cost of industry of infrastructure – building bridges, roads and railways. Ed Arnold, of Rusi, says it’ll inevitably lead to more “creative accounting”.
Even if, as expected, the new spending target is approved, some nations may have little intent of reaching it – by 2032 or 2035. The timescale’s still unclear. Spain’s prime minister has already called it unreasonable and counterproductive. Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t even been able to say when the UK will spend 3% of its GDP of defence. The UK prime minister only said that it was an ambition some time in the next parliament. However, given the UK government’s stated policy of putting Nato at the heart of the UK’s defence policy, Sir Keir will have to back the new plan.
The real danger is to interpret the demand for an increase in defence spending as arbitrary, a symbolic gesture – or just bowing to US pressure. It’s also driven by Nato’s own defence plans on how it would respond to an attack by Russia. Rutte himself has said that Russia could attack a Nato country within five years.
Those defence plans remain secret. But Rutte’s already set out what the Alliance is lacking. In a speech earlier this month he said Nato needed a 400% increase in its air and missile defences: thousands more armoured vehicles and tanks, and millions more artillery shells.
Most member states, including the UK, do not yet meet their Nato capability commitments. It’s why Sweden plans to double the size of its army and Germany is looking to boost its troop numbers by 60,000.
The plans go into granular detail as to how the Alliance will defend its Eastern flank should Russia invade. In a recent speech, the head of the US Army in Europe, General Christopher Donahue, highlighted the need to defend Polish and Lithuanian territory near the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. He said the Alliance had looked at its existing capabilities and “realised very quickly they are not sufficient”.
Yet, strangely, specific discussions about Russia and the war in Ukraine will be muted. It’s the one big issue that now divides Europe and America. Kurt Volker says, under Trump, the US “does not see Ukrainian security as essential to European security but our European allies do”.
Trump has already shattered Nato’s united front by talking to Putin and withholding military support to Ukraine.
Ed Arnold says contentious issues have been stripped from the summit. Not least to avoid a schism with Trump. Leaders were supposed to discuss a new Russia strategy, but it’s not on the agenda.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited to the NATO summit dinner and not the main discussions
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited to the summit dinner, but he won’t be taking part in the main discussions of the North Atlantic Council.
Rutte will be hoping that his first summit as secretary general will be short and sweet. But with Trump at odds with most of his allies on Russia, the greatest threat facing the Alliance, there’s no guarantee it’ll go according to plan.