Mark Carney’s elevation to the top job in Canada is of particular significance at this moment when his country is at the frontline of a North American trade war. He becomes the “anti-Trump” on the US president’s doorstep.
The former Bank of England governor chose to lean strongly into resisting Donald Trump’s policies at his acceptance speech. He said the US president had brought “dark days” from “a country we can no longer trust” and that he was “proud” of Canadians resisting the US “with their wallets”.
While on trade specifically Mr Carney vowed to keep the retaliatory tariffs “until Americans show us respect”, it was clear that the general threats against Canadian sovereignty are equally as important in his thinking.
Trump has repeatedly said he will use economic power to encourage Canada to become the 51st state of the US, but Carney hit back. “The Americans want our resources, our land, our water, our country… Canada will never be part of America in any way, shape or form,” he said.
Behind the scenes, Carney has been encouraging a very robust response to Mr Trump. As he told me last month in his only UK interview during his campaign to succeed current Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, it was necessary to “stand up to a bully”.
He ridiculed Trump’s allegations of Canada’s involvement in fentanyl trade, and the US president’s suggestion that Canada has ripped off the US. Canada’s trade deficit is caused “entirely” by its exports of subsidised oil, Carney told me, and “perhaps we should ask for that subsidy back”.
He follows in the footsteps of former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi as a former top central banker who became a G7 leader. It is an otherwise rare path, but it may be good timing when Canada’s nearest neighbour has suggested using economic power to take over.
Carney has experience in this area having dealt with a number of acute political-economic crises, such as the banking crash, the eurozone crisis, sterling’s sharp slide after Brexit, and the start of the pandemic.
He has also regularly attended G20 meetings at leader level, including in the presence of Trump, as chair of the Financial Stability Board, an international economic body. At one such meeting, the Trump team threatened to leave the International Monetary Fund.
Carney believes that Trump only respects power. Of any attempt to mollify Trump, he said “good luck with that”. He will focus further tariff retaliation on bringing inflation and interest rate rises to Canada’s “southern neighbour”.
The Canadian election is due by October, but Carney might call an earlier one. Depending on that, he is on course to host Trump in Canada at the G7 Summit in June.
His rise to the top job raises the stakes for the UK. On the one hand, a more robust approach from an allied G7 leader stands in contrast to the UK’s attempt to hug the White House closely.
On the other hand, Carney also hinted at wanting to diversify trade towards “more reliable” partners, which would include the UK and EU. Canada might send its subsidised energy to Europe, rather than the US.
The bigger strategic point is that Carney’s background means a focus on international solidarity, and defence of the existing multilateral system. He says Canada can “stand on its own feet” but sees merit in creating a more coherent international alliance to focus the minds of Congress and tariff-sceptics in the Trump administration.
Canada’s new leadership expects support from its Commonwealth ally, the UK. After my recent interview with him, Carney turned the camera to the portrait on the wall of the office from which he was talking to me: King Charles. The message was clear. Canada and the UK should be on the same side in this new world era.