Much of the damage was caused in initial retaliatory strikes by Iran in the week after the US and Israel launched the war, according to a report by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).

The full extent of the damage caused by Iranian strikes on US assets in the region is not clear.

But the $800m in estimated damage to US military infrastructure – a figure that’s higher than has been previously reported – offers a picture of the steep costs to the US as the conflict drags on.

“The damage to US bases in the region has been underreported,” said Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior adviser and co-author of the think tank study. “Although that appears to be extensive, the full amount won’t be known until more information is available.”

In response to a request for comment, the US Department of Defense referred the BBC to US Central Command, which is leading the war. Officials there declined to comment.

Iran’s retaliatory strikes targeted US air-defence and satellite-communication systems, among other assets, in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and other countries across the Middle East.

A significant portion of damage was caused by a strike on a US radar for a Thaad missile defence system at an air base in Jordan.

The AN/TPY-2 radar system costs approximately $485m according to a CSIS review of defence department budget documents. The air-defence systems are used for the long-range interception of ballistic missiles.

Strikes by Iran caused an additional $310m in estimated damage to buildings, facilities and other infrastructure on US bases and military bases used by American forces in the region.

Iran also has struck at least three air bases more than once, according to an analysis of satellite imagery by BBC. The repeat strikes underscore Iran’s efforts to target specific US assets. Russia has reportedly shared intelligence with Tehran on American military forces in the region.

Satellite imagery shows the three air bases – Ali Al-Salim base in Kuwait, Al-Udeid in Qatar and Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia – with fresh damage appearing during different phases of the conflict.

The US has also lost 13 military service members since President Donald Trump joined Israel in launching the attacks on Iran on 28 February.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (Hrana) estimates the overall death toll has reached nearly 3,200, including 1,400 civilians.

Trump has said the US is on track to achieve his goals of destroying Iran’s nuclear program, degrading its conventional military power, and ending the regime’s support for proxy groups in the region.

“We’re doing extremely well in Iran,” Trump said at a White House event on Friday.

But the war has rattled the global economy with the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over the duration of the conflict and whether Trump will deploy ground troops.

Analysis of satellite imagery has been hampered by restrictions imposed by major US-based providers on the release of the imagery.

But it is possible to discern certain patterns in Iran’s retaliatory action against US military interests in the region.

Radar and satellite systems have been a focus from the start, when Iranian strikes hit a US naval base in Bahrain. They function as the eyes and ears of modern military operations.

Satellite imagery most notably showed the destruction of two radomes – protective enclosures for such sensitive equipment. It is highly probable the systems themselves were damaged, although it is not possible to gauge the extent.

Radar sites were hit at Camp Arifjan, a US military facility in Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base, where US aircraft are located. Imagery of the latter shows smoke rising from a radar component for a Thaad air-defence system.

More extensive damage to Thaad systems is evident at US bases in the UAE and Jordan. It’s unclear what the cost of that damage was. The degradation of these systems reportedly led the US to redeploy Thaad components from South Korea to the Middle East.

The damage from Iran’s retaliatory strikes account for a fraction of the overall costs to the US for the war.

Defense department officials reportedly briefed members of Congress that the first six days of the war had cost $11.3bn. The first 12 days cost 16.5bn, according to CSIS.

The Pentagon is asking for another $200bn in funding for the war. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Thursday that the figure “could move.”

“It takes money to kill bad guys,” Hegseth said.

Despite the pressure on oil prices brought about by severe disruption to the critical waterway amid the conflict, he insisted the US does not need help from its allies.

Speaking alongside Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin at the White House, Trump said he has been informed by most Nato allies that they do not want to get involved in the war, a conflict many of them view as illegal.

While Trump has said some countries are willing to help escort ships through the strait, he has yet to publicly identify them.

In heated remarks in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump insisted that “we don’t need any help” from Nato.

“But they should’ve been there,” he added.

The US president said the reluctance to send mine-sweeping vessels to the Gulf was “not a big deal”, but was “unfair” to the US.

He reserved his harshest criticism for the UK, citing its lack of participation and assistance in the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Trump said the US-UK relationship was “always the best” until “[Prime Minister] Keir [Starmer] came along”.

He also said the war was a “great test” of the alliance’s relations with the US.

But when asked if he was considering any retaliatory measures, the president said only that he had “nothing currently in mind”.

Trump also complained that Nato allies had benefited from tens of billions of dollars in US backing for Ukraine to fend off Russia’s invasion.

“We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need,” the president said on social media.

Only a handful of vessels carrying Iranian oil to countries including India and China have managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since hostilities began on 28 February.

Several commercial cargo ships have been struck in the waterway, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes.

US officials have still not identified allies willing to help escort ships through the passage.

Many, including the UK, Germany and France – have said they are not ready to make a decision yet.

President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday that France did not want to get involved.

“We are not a party to the conflict, and therefore France will never take part in operations to reopen or liberate the Strait of Hormuz,” Macron said.

Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, said on Tuesday: “This is not Europe’s war. We didn’t start the war. We were not consulted.”

“The member states do not have the wish to be dragged into this,” Kallas said, according to AP news agency.

“We are resetting the meeting,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. “We’re working with China. They were fine with it.”

Trump’s  comments that he wants to remain in Washington come as the war against Iran extends into its third week and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to almost all global shipping.

“Because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here,” Trump said.

Trump was scheduled to visit Beijing from March 31 to April 2. The president said he now plans to visit in “about five weeks” or towards the end of April. His last state visit to China was in 2017, during his first term.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday that the US and China “remain in communication” about Trump’s plans to visit.

Trump and Xi were expected to discuss a range of issues, from trade tariffs and Chinese export controls on rare earth minerals and magnets, to the US relationship with Taiwan and Chinese fentanyl exports.

The US-China trade war was put on pause in October when Xi and Trump signed a truce following a meeting in South Korea, and both sides have been working on a more comprehensive trade agreement to resolve their dispute.

While China and Xi were in Trump’s crosshairs at the start of his second term last year, the president’s tone towards both has softened since his meeting with the Chinese leader in South Korea.

“I look forward to seeing President Xi; he looks forward to seeing me, I think,” Trump said from the White House. “We have a very good relationship with China. It’s much different than it was in the past.”

Trump has also signalled that he is seeking China’s help to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely blocked by Tehran since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran 19 days ago.

The waterway is a critical conduit for global trade and Middle East oil exports, and the price of oil has fluctuated significantly due to its closure and constricting fuel supplies.

Trump told The Financial Times that China was among the group of countries that should lobby Tehran to reopen the strait.

Trump previously accused Tehran and Beijing of belonging to the “Axis of Autocracy” due to their close economic ties, as China is Iran’s largest trading partner. China has also supplied Tehran with critical technology to support electronic warfare, some of which has been on display in recent weeks.

If the strait remains closed and the war continues, Trump could still see himself on the back foot when his meeting with Xi next takes place, said Ali Wyne, senior researcher of US-China relations at the International Crisis Group.

Proponents of the Trump administration’s foreign policy had hoped that Operation Epic Fury, as the US campaign on Iran has been named, “would enhance President Trump’s negotiating posture vis-a-vis President Xi by underscoring his willingness to take dramatic, unexpected actions”, Wyne said.

“The gambit, however, has quickly boomeranged. Facing the severest oil supply shock in history, Trump is now exhorting Xi to help him reopen the world’s most vital waterway, the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

The attack overnight on Tuesday used multiple-warhead missiles that can better evade defence systems, killing two people in Israel’s Ramat Gan area near Tel Aviv.

Falling  shrapnel injured several others and caused significant property damage, including at a Tel Aviv train station, according to Israeli media reports.

In a statement, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the attack exacted “revenge for the blood of martyr Dr. Ali Larijani and his companions”.

Al Jazeera reporting from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, described it as a “difficult night” in Israel, with the incoming cluster munitions causing “a lot of alarm”.

She said the two people killed in the country – a couple in their 70s – had a safe room in their home but were unable to reach it in time, raising concern that Israel’s air-raid sirens are not sounding quickly enough for people to react.

Iran followed up with another wave of missile strikes on central Israel on Wednesday morning.

At home, Iranian authorities executed a man accused of spying for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, according to the country’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency.

Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran had informed it that a projectile hit the premises of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant on Tuesday, though there was no damage to the facility or injuries.

Israel’s  killing of Larijani yesterday was the highest profile assassination since it targeted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war. In addition to Larijani, Israel also killed the commander of Iran’s Basij volunteer militia, Gholamreza Soleimani.

Iran has insisted its system of governance is resilient and capable of withstanding such losses.

“I do not know why the Americans and the Israelis still have not understood this point: The Islamic Republic of Iran has a strong political structure with established political, economic and social institutions,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera. “The presence or absence of a single individual does not affect this structure.”

UAE ‘responding to missile threat’ as Iran renews Gulf attacks

Emergency teams in the United Arab Emirates say they are “responding to missile threats”, as Iran renews its attack on neighbouring Gulf countries after the death of security chief Ali Larijani.

In a statement on X, the UAE National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority says: “Air defence systems are currently responding to a missile threat.

“Please remain in a safe location and follow official channels for warnings and updates.”

The Reuters news agency is reporting loud explosions in Dubai.

Attack kills four in Iran’s northwestern Lorestan Province

The deputy security chief of Lorestan Province says four people have been killed and eight wounded by a US-Israeli attack on rural areas in the Cheghani region.

Saudi Arabia downs drone approaching embassies district

Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry says another drone has been shot down as it “attempted to approach the Embassies District”.

Saudi forces have downed a number of drones in recent hours, as well as a ballistic missile, which saw debris falling near the Prince Sultan Air Base but did not cause any damage.

Sirens in Jerusalem, central Israel

Broadcaster Channel 12 says Israeli air defences have successfully intercepted the missiles launched from Iran.

There were no casualties, it said, adding that the attack set off air raid sirens in Jerusalem and central Israel.

Lebanese civil defence says 11 members wounded in Israeli raid

Lebanon’s civil defence says 11 of its personnel have been wounded in an Israeli attack on the southern city of Nabatieh last night.

According to Lebanese authorities, Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed at least 912 people since March 2, and displaced more than one million people.

Israel’s military says missiles launched from Iran towards its territory

The Israeli army says missiles have been launched from Iran towards its territory, and air defence systems are operating to intercept the attack.

In a post on X, it said residents in targeted areas had been notified with a message sent to their mobile phones and were instructed to move to shelter until the threat was dealt with.

Iranian command centres, missile sites struck in Tehran, says Israeli army

The Israeli army claims to have struck Iranian command centres, missile sites and other infrastructure in Tehran yesterday.

A missile defence command centre and air defence systems were also targeted, the army claimed.

‘This is America’s war,’ says Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi

Iran’s FM Araghchi Al Jazeera that the US is responsible for the war engulfing the region.

He denies targeting civilians, defends Iran’s retaliation, and warns that the US military presence across the Gulf makes escalation unavoidable.

Araghchi also signals possible new rules for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while rejecting a ceasefire in favour of a permanent end to the war.

Israeli forces kill 4 people in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley

At least four people have been killed in an Israeli attack that targeted four houses in the town of Sahmar in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

Israeli attacks have killed 912 people in Lebanon and wounded 2,221 more since March 2, the Health Ministry says.

Iran executes man accused of spying for Mossad

Iran has executed a man it accused of spying for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

“The death sentence of an Israeli spy, who provided Mossad officers with images and information about sensitive areas in the country, was carried out this morning after going through the legal process and being approved by the Supreme Court,” Tasnim reported.

Tasnim said the man was recruited online by Israeli intelligence while in Sweden after he posted his details on a group travel advertising link. A Persian-speaking Mossad officer reportedly made initial contact, the report added.

He was arrested by the IRGC in June in the Iranian city of Savojbolagh, during the 12-day war with Israel.

He was in possession of “sophisticated spy, intelligence, and satellite communications” equipment.

Much of the island including the capital, Havana, was plunged into darkness, with streets only illuminated by headlamps and battery-powered lights on Monday.

UNE, Cuba’s grid operator, said early on Tuesday morning that it was gradually restoring electricity to provinces and cities around the country.

It is the latest in a series of widespread blackouts to hit the Caribbean island, where aging electricity infrastructure and chronic fuel shortages have been exacerbated by a US blockade on oil shipments to the communist-run nation.

Coupled with shortages of food and medicine, the situation has triggered rare public dissent in the form of street protests, which continued with people banging pots and pans in central Havana on Monday.

Unauthorised demonstrations are illegal in Cuba and those who defy the ban risk being jailed.

“It is not just the blackout,” 26-year-old Havana resident Lázaro Hernández told news agency Reuters.

“There is no water because there is no electricity to run the pumps. There is no electricity, no food, no oil, no fuel, and private businesses have high prices because everything is going up now, since they have to move their goods by truck and transport. All of this is really very bad.”

Meanwhile, Dayana Machin, also 26 and from Havana, was unsurprised by the blackout. “We’re already used to living with this,” she said.

Cuba, an island of around 10 million people, relies heavily on fuel imports.

Its regional ally Venezuela was believed to have sent around 35,000 barrels of oil a day – about half Cuba’s oil needs – until its supplies were cut off following the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the US in early January.

US President Donald Trump has also threatened tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba.

It has been three months since the nation has received an oil shipment, Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, said on Friday.

With the government in Venezuela now appearing to co-operate with the US, the Trump administration has turned its attention to the Latin American nation the US has shared the most animosity with since its revolution in 1959.

Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday that he believed he would have the “honour of taking Cuba”.

“Whether I free it, take it, I could do anything I want with it, you want to know the truth,” he said. “They’re a very weakened nation right now.”

He previously threatened a “friendly takeover” of Cuba and has urged it to “make a deal” or face unspecified consequences.

Díaz-Canel confirmed last week that his government was in the initial stages of talks with the Trump administration to resolve their differences.

At the same time, the Cuban government released 51 prisoners in what it described as a demonstration of “goodwill”.

To mitigate the impact of the severe fuel shortage – that has also affected air travel and, with it, tourism to the island – Cuba has increased production of domestic crude and gas, as well as solar generation.

But its actions have yet to quell protests among Cubans, for whom power cuts have been a persistent source of public discontent.

A protest in the central city of Morón on Saturday devolved into a small group ransacking a local Communist Party office.

José Antonio Kast appeared at the site along Chile’s northern border with Peru on Monday to inspect the trench and chat to construction workers, hailing it as the first step towards meeting his campaign promise to stem illegal immigration.

Only a small portion of the planned barrier has so far been cut into the arid Atacama desert – a ditch a few feet wide and deep.

It is one of several policies of Kast’s that echo pledges by US President Donald Trump – who has made constructing a wall at the Mexican border a common refrain at rallies and a crucial part of his own immigration policy.

aEchoing his rhetoric on the campaign trail, Kast said Chile had been “violated by illegal immigration, drug trafficking and organised crime”, adding that he wanted to used the diggers behind him to “build a sovereign Chile”.

“For all of Chile, this is a milestone,” he said while at the site, near the border town of Arica.

Kast has portrayed Chile as a country descending into chaos and insecurity, and prior to his election pledged to restore order and implement sharp spending cuts.

Chile is one of the safest and most stable countries in South America – but a rise in immigration and organised crime has spread concern among Chileans.

Chile’s foreign population has risen sharply in the past decade, jumping from less than 600,000 in 2015 to more than 1.5 million in 2024, according to World Bank data.

Its government estimates that about 336,000 of these are undocumented migrants, many from Venezuela.

The trench-digging on Monday marks the start of the “border shield” promise that helped Kast win the presidency by 58% in December.

Trenches and fences will compose the barrier, patrolled by military personnel. The Chilean government said surveillance systems and obstacles would also be installed to deter crossings.

The nation’s border with Peru spans around 180km and a further 900km with Bolivia – though its interior ministry has said the barrier will only cover roughly half of this.

The election of Kast, who succeeded left-winger Gabriel Boric as president, marks the nation’s most abrupt rightward shift since the end of its military dictatorship in 1990. He has openly praised Chile’s former right-wing dictator Augusto Pinochet.

Kast is also an admirer of Trump and the two appear poised to align on several issues including undocumented migration. As well as co-opting a number of the US president’s policies, Kast’s supporters have been seen wearing red “Make Chile Great Again” caps – a nod to Trump’s own Maga hats.

The president of Iran’s football federation had said negotiations were under way to move fixtures in order to ensure their players’ safety.

It comes amid US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which has responded with attacks on Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf.

However, on Tuesday Fifa said in a statement it was looking forward to nations “competing as per the match schedule”.

The US is co-hosting the World Cup, which takes place between 11 June and 19 July, with Canada and Mexico.

Iran are scheduled to face New Zealand on 16 June and Belgium on 21 June, both in Los Angeles, and Egypt in Seattle on 27 June.

Last week US President Donald Trump said that while Iran are “welcome to the World Cup”, he does not think “it is appropriate” they attend “for their own life and safety”.

“When Trump has explicitly stated that he cannot ensure the security of the Iranian national team, we will certainly not travel to America,” said Iranian football federation president Mehdi Taj in a post, external on a social media account belonging to the Iranian embassy in Mexico.

“We are negotiating with Fifa to hold Iran’s World Cup matches in Mexico.”

A Fifa spokesperson said: “Fifa is in regular contact with all participating member associations, including Iran, to discuss planning for the World Cup.

“Fifa is looking forward to all participating teams competing as per the match schedule announced on 6 December 2025.”

Iran, who have qualified for a fourth consecutive World Cup, decided not to pull out of the competition last summer when the US bombed three nuclear facilities in the country.

A recent message on the national team’s Telegram account said Fifa is the organiser of the World Cup and “not any single country”.

It added that “the country that should be removed is the one that merely carries the title of host but does not have the ability to ensure security for the teams participating in this event”.

Previously, Trump has said he “does not care” if Iran take part in the World Cup.

Fifa president Gianni Infantino subsequently said the US President had told him Iran are “welcome to compete” at this summer’s finals, despite the countries being at war.

Iran’s Minister of Sports and Youth, Ahmad Donyamali, then said that “under no circumstances do we have the appropriate conditions to participate in the World Cup”.

When have matches previously been moved?

If Iran’s games were relocated to Mexico, it would not be the first time matches have been moved for safety and geopolitical reasons.

In recent times, Belarus have played their competitive home games in Hungary because of their support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This included a World Cup qualifier against Scotland last year, which was played at the ZTE Arena in Zalaegerszeg.

In cricket, political tensions between India and Pakistan mean that the two countries will only play each other at neutral venues when they meet at ICC events.

India refused to travel to Pakistan to play in the Champions Trophy in 2025, while Pakistan played their matches in the recent T20 World Cup in Sri Lanka.

In a letter posted on Tuesday to his X account, National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent said that Iran posed “no imminent threat” to the US and claimed that the Trump administration “started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby”.

Kent, 45, is a US special forces and CIA veteran whose wife, navy cryptologic technician Shannon Kent, was killed in a suicide bombing in Syria in 2019.

The White House has dismissed the letter as having “many false claims” about Iran.

Speaking in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump said that he thought Kent was a “nice guy” but “weak on security”.

Trump said that Kent’s resignation letter made him realise “it was a good thing that he’s out” and that he disagreed with Kent’s assessment of the Iranian threat.

With his departure, Kent becomes the most high-profile figure from within the Trump administration to publicly criticise the US-Israeli operation in Iran.

In the letter, Kent said that had previously supported Trump’s foreign policy platform and until last year believed that he had “had understood that the wars in the Middle East that robbed America of the precious lives of our patriots and depleted the wealth and prosperity of our nation.”

Additionally, Kent alleged that “high-ranking Israeli officials” and influential US journalists had sowed “misinformation” that caused Trump to undermine his “America First” platform.

“This echo chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States,” the letter continued. “This was a lie.”

Kent, a long-time supporter of Trump’s who unsuccessfully ran for Congress twice, was nominated by the president early in his administration and narrowly confirmed to his post, with many Democrats criticising his links to extremist groups including members of the Proud Boys.

In the confirmation hearing, Kent also refused to back away from claims that federal agents had fomented the January 6 riots at the US Capitol or that Trump had won the 2020 election.

At the National Counterterrorism Center, he reported to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and oversaw the analysis and detection of potential terrorist threats from around the globe.

Previously, Kent had deployed 11 times overseas with the US military, including with the US Army’s special forces in Iraq.

He later became a paramilitary officer at the CIA, before leaving government service after his wife’s death.

Kent cited his military service and her death in his letter, saying that he “cannot support sending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people nor justifies the cost of American lives”.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt accused Kent of echoing “the false claim that Democrats and some in the liberal media” by saying that Iran posed no threat.

“As President Trump has clearly and explicitly stated, he had strong and compelling evidence that Iran was going to attack the United States first,” she added.

Additionally, Leavitt said that Kent’s suggestion that “Trump made the decision based on the influence of others, even foreign countries, is both insulting and laughable”.

In a brief interview with the New York Times, conservative media commentator Tucker Carlson praised Kent, with whom he has close personal ties.

“Joe is the bravest man I know, and he can’t be dismissed as a nut,” Carlson said. “He’s leaving a job that gave him access to the highest-level relevant intelligence. The neocons will try to destroy him for that.”

“He understands that and did it anyway,” he added.

There have been a number of resignations among senior officials in the Trump administration, including Security and Exchange Commission enforcement director Margaret Ryan and Kennedy Center President Ric Grenell.

The president’s second term, however, has seen far less turnover than his previous tenure at the White House between 2017 and 2021.

But if the American commander-in-chief is grappling with a war of choice that seems in danger of spiralling in ways he can’t control, those concerns are not playing out in public.

In more than an hour of public remarks at the White House on Monday, he discussed his thinking on the state of the war effort – and also on Kennedy Center renovations, White House ballroom construction plans, this year’s World Cup tournament, the health of a Republican congressman and a host of other unrelated topics.

It was classic Trump, as unscripted and wide-ranging as ever. This past weekend, he played golf at his Florida resort. And on his Truth Social website, he devoted nearly as much time to railing about the Supreme Court as he did to discussing the Iran War.

While Trump may be interested in other topics, he is confronting a lesson previous American presidents have learned the hard way – that war can consume a presidency whether they want it to or not.

And evidence continues to mount that a war that Trump had previously said was “already won” and “very complete” now has a timeline that could stretch for weeks or even longer.

On Monday afternoon, Trump announced that the US had requested that a planned presidential trip to China in early April be delayed for a month because of the war.

“The president’s utmost responsibility right now as commander in chief is to ensure the continued success of Operation Epic Fury,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said when the move was first reported, referring to the military name for the Iran war.

Over the weekend, the president posted on social media that he was forming a coalition of forces to help protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been threatened by Iranian attacks.

“Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships,” he wrote. “One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!

Since his call, however, a growing list of nations – including Japan, Australia and many European powers – have indicated that they are not interested in joining the effort.

“We will not be drawn into the wider war,” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday, adding that he was open to a “viable collective plan” to address the situation in the strait.

That leaves Trump with the unpleasant decision of whether to more fully commit the US Navy to securing the narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes.

On Monday, he noted that the US was destroying Iran’s minelaying ships – which present a key danger to navigating the strait – but “all it takes is one”.

“It’s a little unfair,” he said. “You win a war, but they have no right to be doing what they’re doing.”

There are some signs the US is taking steps to keep its military options open. Last Friday, US media reported that the president had ordered a Marine amphibious unit, which includes 5,000 soldiers and sailors, from Japan to the Middle East.

If Trump chooses to act, it could put US forces in greater danger due to their proximity to Iran.

If he doesn’t act – if he instead announces the US has achieved its objective of significantly degrading Iran’s military power and wraps up the American military campaign – Iran could continue to pose a threat to shipping and the price of oil could remain stubbornly high.

In the second scenario, the US may have spent tens of billions of dollars without conclusively altering the Middle East balance of power.

According to Clifford Young, chair of public affairs and strategic insights at polling company Ipsos, an extended surge in energy prices would pose a very real political threat to a president who is already on shaky ground with the American public.

For the moment, he said, polls indicate that Trump’s core supporters continue to stick with him even as they have some doubts about the Iran operation and other core issues, like immigration and tariffs. The erosion of his support has come at the margins, among centrist Republican and independent voters.

While the president’s popularity, with approval ratings in the low 40% range, should be a concern for Republicans, there’s little sign yet that the Iran war is dragging him down significantly.

That could all change, however, if the war affects the issues that Americans tell pollsters they care about the most – the cost of living and affordability.

Prices, particularly for housing, groceries and consumer goods, continue to remain high even as the overall inflation rate has dropped over the first year of Trump’s presidency.

At the very least, the war in Iran distracts Trump and his administration from efforts to convince the American public that the president is addressing their economic concerns. And if the cost of gas at the pump – until recently a source of pride for Trump – stays high, it could have dire consequences for his political standing.

The current average cost of a gallon of petrol in the US, according to the American Automobile Association, is $3.72 – a dramatic increase from the $2.94 average price a month ago.

“It just blows up everything,” Young said. “The affordability agenda gets torpedoed from the Republican point of view.”

On the other end of the risk equation for the president is the very real danger that comes with choosing to expand US operations in the Middle East.

With thousands of Marines reportedly on the way to the region, Trump could engage American ground forces to secure the Strait of Hormuz, to control Iranian oil export terminals or to locate and more thoroughly dismantle components of the nation’s nuclear programme.

Any use of US troops, however, risks greater outcry from the majority of the American public that is wary of yet another protracted US military engagement, including many of whom believe Trump’s campaign promises to avoid foreign wars.

“There’s a forever war fatigue,” Young said. “If we put boots on the ground, that’s a whole new risk for the administration. That changes everything.”

If the US involvement in Iran continues to be limited to an aerial campaign, however, Trump has time to regain his political footing. While Americans can be quick to blame the president for higher prices at the pump, their anger tends not to linger if those prices go down.

The midterm congressional elections in November are still more than seven months away, giving the president time to find a resolution that avoids a domestic economic crisis.

“We don’t need anybody,” Trump said on Monday. “We’re the strongest nation in the world.”

The challenge for Trump, however, is that – with or without help – none of Trump’s present choices are without risk and the odds of a quick and easy resolution are dwindling by the day.