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Here is where things stand on Thursday, May 22:
Fighting
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said air defences shot down 105 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions, including 35 over the Moscow region, after the ministry said a day earlier that it had downed more than 300 Ukrainian drones.
- Kherson Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said one person was killed in a Russian artillery attack on the region.
- H said over the past day, 35 areas in Kherson, including Kherson city, came under artillery shelling and air attacks, wounding 11 people.
- Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said the “most intense situation” is in the Donetsk region, and the army is continuing “active operations in the Kursk and Belgorod regions”.
Diplomacy
- Legislators from the European Union are expected to greenlight tariffs on fertiliser imports from Russia. A United States Senate bill to pressure Russia with new sanctions over the war gained the support of more than 80 members of both parties.
- The Kremlin rejected Ukrainian and European accusations that it was stalling peace talks, saying it plans to name its conditions for a ceasefire without a timeframe.
- Poland said its military intervened after a ship from the Russian “shadow fleet” was seen performing suspicious manoeuvres near a power cable connecting Poland with Sweden.
- Zelenskyy said he had spoken by phone to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and that they had discussed joint steps and the need to put pressure on Russia to secure “a just peace”.
- Ukraine’s allies, including the US and UK, issued an advisory warning of a Russian cyber campaign targeting logistics and tech firms involved in delivering foreign assistance to Ukraine.
Russia mocks Ukraine during direct talks, raising suspicion of bad faith
Russia questioned Ukrainian sovereignty and undermined the authority of its president as the two countries engaged in their first direct talks since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Istanbul on May 15 for the talks his Russian counterpart suggested days earlier. Accompanying him were his foreign and defence ministers.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin did not show up, nor did his cabinet members. He sent a junior delegation, headed by ambassador-at-large Rodion Miroshnik, that was not empowered to sign a ceasefire.
However, in sour tones, Russia cast aspersions on the legitimacy of the Ukrainian team.
“The delegation is waiting for the clown to speak out, for the hallucinogens to wear off, and for him to finally allow those he’s banned from negotiating for three years to sit down at the table,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova wrote on social media, referring to Zelenskyy’s decree against direct talks while Russia waged war in Ukraine.
“We analysed Ukrainian legislation, and according to it, we understand that Zelenskyy’s powers as the legitimate leader of the country have expired,” said Russian lead negotiator Rodion Miroshnik on May 16, the day of the talks.
He was referring to the fact that Zelenskyy did not hold a scheduled presidential election last year. The Ukrainian constitution allows Zelenskyy to remain in office at a time of national crisis, and the Ukrainian parliament extended Zelenskyy’s term until the end of martial law. But Russian officials have used the extension to paint Zelenskyy as illegitimate.
“There is a risk that agreements reached and signed in an illegitimate manner may be disavowed,” said Miroshnik.
“The most important and fundamental thing for us remains who exactly will sign these documents on the Ukrainian side,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov the day after the talks.
But But Russia’s stance has stirred suspicion that Moscow is laying the groundwork to eventually wriggle out of any agreement.
“This rhetorical campaign is part of efforts to set conditions for Russia to withdraw from any future peace agreements at a time of Russia’s choosing,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
What the two sides proposed
Ukraine proposed a ceasefire followed by a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Russia rejected both demands, proposing instead an exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war from each side, followed by a submission of ceasefire proposals in writing.
“We agreed that each side would present its vision of a possible future ceasefire, laying it out in detail,” said Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky, a member of the negotiating team.
The war will meanwhile continue – in its favour, Russia believes.
During the talks, Russian forces launched assaults near Pokrovsk and Toretsk in Ukraine’s east, capturing some turf.
On Saturday night, Russia unleashed 273 drones on Ukraine’s cities – its largest barrage of the war.
And on Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed to have captured two settlements, Maryino in Sumy and Novoolenovka in Donetsk.
Moscow has answered Kyiv’s calls for a ceasefire by insisting on talks without preconditions, but it reportedly demanded them on Friday.
Sources familiar with the proceedings told Bloomberg the Russian delegation demanded a priori recognition that the four provinces Russia partly occupies, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, be handed over in their entirety.
Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev insisted that the four regions Russia invaded in 2022 were Russian by law.
“They first proclaimed themselves the subjects of international law following referendums and then addressed us with a request to accede to the Russian Federation. So, from the standpoint of international law, everything is fine here,” he told the St Petersburg International Legal Forum on Tuesday.
It appeared that Russia was trying to set another precondition for a second round of talks, which should entail an agreement on Ukraine’s non-aligned status, Leonid Slutsky, the head of the State Duma’s committee on international affairs, told the pro-Kremlin newswire TASS on Tuesday.
The surrendering of the four regions and neutrality – an agreement never to join NATO and the European Union – are among conditions Putin set in a speech last June.
As delegations resumed their talks on Monday, Zakharova confirmed that those still constituted Russian goals.
Is Trump an effective negotiator?
Putin outlined the next steps after speaking with United States President Donald Trump on the phone on Monday.
“Russia is ready and will continue to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum on a potential future peace treaty outlining a number of positions, such as, for instance, settlement principles, the timeframe for signing a potential peace agreement, and so on, including a potential ceasefire for a certain period in case relevant agreements are reached,” Putin told reporters .
The next day, Putin called Ukrainians Neonazis for tearing down World War II monuments, and “idiots” who “would come second in a contest of idiots”, as he visited the border region of Kursk for the first time since Russian forces reclaimed it following a Ukrainian counter-invasion.
Trump urged Putin to meet with Zelenskyy.
Peskov downplayed the demand, saying they “touched upon the issue of direct contact”.
“It is important that America remains engaged in the process of bringing peace closer. It is America that Russia fears, and it is American influence that can save many lives, if used as leverage to make Putin end the war,” Zelenskyy said in his Tuesday evening address.
But others had doubts that Trump’s negotiating tactics were going to produce a good result for Ukraine.
US former ambassador to Kyiv Bridget Brink explained on Monday why she resigned her post last month.
“I resigned from Ukraine and also from the foreign service because the policy since the beginning of the [Trump] administration is to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia,” she told CBS’s Face the Nation. “Peace at any price is not peace at all. It’s appeasement. And as we know from history, appeasement only leads to more war.”
Europe, Canada and Australia remain the holdouts among Ukraine’s allies in favour of a harder line against Russia.
A 17th EU sanctions package came into force on Monday, restricting the movement of 189 tankers considered to be smuggling Russian oil, and bringing the total to 342. The EU also sanctioned Russian arms manufacturers and 28 Russian judges for human rights violations.