A pre-emptive move designed to further smoothen the entry of Harley Davidsons into India – and, Delhi hopes, ward off any threat of tariffs. US motorcycle exports to India were worth $3m last year.

Donald Trump has marked his return to the White House by brandishing trade measures against America’s neighbours and allies as well as its big rival China.

India hopes it is ahead of the game – but will its tariff cuts satisfy Trump, or is trade action still on the table?

“Canada and Mexico are literally two arms of the US. If he has acted against them, he could easily act against India too,” says Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI).

In their phone conversation late last month, the US president pressed Prime Minister Narendra Modi to buy more US arms and for there to be a fairer trade balance, keeping the pressure on.

And during his first term, Trump fixated on India’s steep tariffs. He repeatedly slammed the then 100% duty on Harleys as “unacceptable”, making it a rallying point in his crusade against what he saw as unfair trade practices.

In the past he repeatedly branded India a “tariff king” and a “big abuser” of trade ties.

India enjoys a trade surplus with the US, its top trading partner. Bilateral trade crossed $190bn (£150bn) in 2023. Merchandise exports to US have surged 40% to $123bn since 2018, while services trade grew 22% to reach $66bn. Meanwhile, US exports to India stood at $70bn.

But beyond bikes, India has zeroed out import taxes on satellite ground installations, benefiting US exporters who supplied $92m worth in 2023.

Tariffs on synthetic flavouring essences dropped from 100% to 20% ($21m in US exports last year), while duties on fish hydrolysate for aquatic feed fell from 15% to 5% ($35m in US exports in 2024). India also scrapped tariffs on select waste and scrap items, a category where US exports amounted to $2.5bn last year.

Top US exports to India in 2023 included crude oil and petroleum products ($14bn), LNG, coal, medical devices, scientific instruments, scrap metals, turbojets, computers and almonds.

“While Trump has criticised India’s tariff policies, the latest reductions signal a policy shift that could enhance US exports across various sectors,” says Mr Srivastava.

“With key tariff cuts on technology, automobiles, industrial and waste imports, India appears to be taking steps towards facilitating trade even as the global trade environment remains tense.”

Meanwhile India’s exports span a diverse range – from textiles, pharmaceuticals and engineering goods to petroleum oils, machinery and cut diamonds. It also ships smartphones, auto parts, shrimp, gold jewellery, footwear and iron and steel, making it a key player in global trade.

“This diverse range of products reflects India’s broad export base and its strong trade relationship with the US,” says Mr Srivastava.

India was once among the world’s most protectionist economies. In the 1970s, American political scientist Joseph Grieco described it as having one of the “most restrictive, cumbersome… regimes regulating foreign direct investments”.

This inward-looking approach led to a steady decline in India’s export share of global trade, from 2.42% in 1948 to just 0.51% by 1991. As Aseema Sinha, author of Globalizing India: How Global Rules and Markets are Shaping India’s Rise to Power, observed, this period was marked by “a self-driven industrialisation drive, export pessimism, and suspicion of global alliances”.

India finally opened up in the 1990s and 2000s, cutting average tariffs from 80% in 1990 to 13% in 2008.

But after Modi launched his “Make in India” policy to boost manufacturing in India tariffs have climbed again to about 18% – higher than those set by other Asian nations such as China, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand.

Trade expert Biswajit Dhar believes India is now a prime target under Trump’s “America First” policy, which seeks reciprocal action against high import taxes and reassesses trade with large US deficits.

Agricultural market access remains a sticking point for the US, he says.

India dropped retaliatory tariffs on US-made almonds, apples, chickpeas, lentils and walnuts in 2023, but Trump will likely demand more. However, India may hold firm given domestic political sensitivity around farming.

“This is where we will drive a hard bargain, and problems could arise,” cautions Mr Dhar.

That said, India’s strategic ties with the US – as a Quad member countering China – could help ease friction. India’s willingness to accept the deportation of undocumented Indian migrants in the US without pushing back has also sent a positive signal, Mr Dhar notes.

Experts also point to Modi’s warm personal rapport with Trump as an advantage. Some clarity will come when the Indian prime minister visits the White House – this month, according to some reports – at Trump’s invitation.

That is the question being asked in India after three men died when their car veered off an unfinished bridge and fell on to a riverbed in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh.

Police are still investigating the incident, which took place on Sunday, but they believe that Google Maps led the group to take that route.

A part of the bridge had reportedly collapsed earlier this year because of floods and while locals knew this and avoided the bridge, the three men were not aware of this and were from outside the area. There were no barricades or sign boards indicating that the bridge was unfinished.

Authorities have named four engineers from the state’s road department and an unnamed official from Google Maps in a police complaint on charges of culpable homicide.

A spokesperson from Google said that it was co-operating with the investigation.

The tragic accident has spotlighted India’s poor road infrastructure and sparked a debate on whether navigation apps like Google Maps share responsibility for such incidents.

Some blame the app for not providing accurate information while others argue that it is a larger failure on the part of the government for not cordoning off the place.

Google Maps is the most popular navigation app in India and has become synonymous with GPS (Global Positioning System), a satellite-based radio navigation system.

It also powers the services of many ride-sharing, e-commerce and food delivery platforms. The app reportedly has around 60 million active users and witnesses around 50 million searches in a day.

But the app has frequently come under scrutiny for providing incorrect directions, sometimes leading to fatal accidents.

In 2021, a man from Maharashtra state drowned after he drove his car into a dam, allegedly while following directions on the app.

Last year, two young doctors in Kerala state died after they drove their car into a river. Police said that they had been following a route shown by the app and cautioned people against relying on it too much when roads were flooded.

But how does Google Maps learn about changes on a road?

GPS signals from users’ apps track traffic changes along routes – an increase signals congestion, while a decrease suggests a road is less used. The app also receives updates from governments and users about traffic jams or closures.

Complaints related to high traffic, or the ones notified by authorities are given priority, as Google does not have the manpower to deal with the millions of complaints streaming in daily, says Ashish Nair, the founder of mapping platform Potter Maps and a former Google Maps employee.

“A map operator then uses satellite imagery, Google Street View and government notifications to confirm the change and update the map.”

According to Mr Nair, navigating apps cannot be held responsible for mishaps as their terms of services make it clear that users must apply their own judgement on the road and that the information provided by the app might differ from actual conditions.

Besides, it is simply very difficult for a platform like Google, which manages maps across the world, to keep across every change that happens on a road, he adds.

Unlike other countries, India also does not have a robust system for reporting such issues on time.

“Data remains a big challenge in India. There is no system for infrastructural changes to be logged into a web interface, which can then be used by apps like Google Maps. Countries like Singapore have such a system,” Mr Nair says.

He adds that India’s vast population and fast-paced development make it even more challenging to get accurate, real-time data. “In other words, bad maps are here to stay until governments become more proactive about collecting and sharing data.”

Lawyers are divided on whether GPS apps can be held legally responsible for road accidents.

Advocate Saima Khan says that since India’s Information Technology (IT) Act gives digital platforms like Google Maps the status of an ‘intermediary’ (a platform that merely disseminates information provided by a third party) it is protected against liability.

But she adds that if it can be proven that the platform did not rectify its data despite being given correct, timely information, then it might be held liable for negligence.