The electoral authorities called it a “technical tie” after the incumbent centre-right Daniel Noboa and his main left-wing challenger Luisa Gonzalez received nearly identical percentages of the vote.

The pair will now face a run-off in April.

The result is far narrower than opinion polls predicted, indicating the second round could be harder to call.

The narrow result also dashed the hopes of Noboa’s supporters, who had been buoyed by an early exit poll suggesting he might clinch victory outright.

The president’s supporters gathered in Quito, waving flags, donning T-shirts with his image and holding life-size cardboard cut-outs of the incumbent president.

These cut-outs, depicting Noboa in various outfits – from suits to tank tops and sunglasses – have become ubiquitous symbols across the country decorating front doors, apartment windows, and even car rooftops.

Noboa’s presidency has been defined by his focus on tackling severe gang violence.

He implemented emergency measures to deploy the military to streets and prisons to curb rising crime.

Many of his supporters hope he will secure a mandate in the run-off to continue his security policies.

“He’s helped us a lot, from when there was gang violence so bad that we couldn’t even go out,” said Fernanda Iza.

The 45-year-old added: “The support of the military he’s introduced – their presence is already helping.

“He has brought us a certain stability. There are many problems still pending, but I hope he continues with his plan.”

Juan Diego Escobar, 16, expressed optimism about Noboa’s chances.

“I think the majority of people who voted for other candidates will prefer to vote for Daniel Noboa in the second round,” he said.

“Noboa handles insecurity well. Crime is fairly well controlled. I think he will also improve the economy.”

Miriam Naranjo said despite being the incumbent, Noboa represented “change”.

She added: “We need the work that he has been doing so far to continue. It’s only been a short time. We were expecting a bigger margin, so we have to work to keep that support for our candidate.”

Despite some successes, such as the capture of some major gang leaders and a slight reduction in prison violence, violent crime remains a major issue.

Violent deaths fell in 2024 but stayed near record levels. In January 2025 alone 750 homicides were reported.

Gonzalez – a protégé of former president Rafael Correa – has criticised Noboa for failing to deliver on key promises, such as boosting the economy, cutting fuel prices, and addressing violent crime.

While she has proposed similar military and police operations to combat crime, her campaign has emphasised increased social spending in Ecuador’s most violent regions.

His critics also accused him of a slow response to a severe drought that led to prolonged power cuts last year.

Noboa also sparked controversy during the campaign by refusing to delegate his presidential duties to Vice President Verónica Abad, citing an electoral law loophole.

This decision became part of a public spat between the two.

Luisa Gonzalez’s supporters see her as a chance for change.

Gonzalo Cajas, 46, said: “Why is there crime? There is poverty. There is hunger. So there should be someone who is really aware of Ecuadorian workers so that the country moves forward.”

Alejandra Tufiño, 42, added: “The country’s security is in pieces. I want change. I’m not saying that she’s going to solve it – but let’s see what happens if we give her a chance.”

Some voters remain disillusioned with both candidates.

Gabriela Cajo, 39, who backed a candidate from the party of assassinated 2023 presidential hopeful Fernando Villavicencio, expressed frustration with the lack of progress on crime.

“Daniel Noboa represents fear, and we represent hope, change. We do not want a state of war, we want peace,” she said.

“I think we are all annoyed with the electoral processes in the country, and the last thing we want is a second round and more expenditure of resources.

“There will be tremendous polarisation. There will be a lot of opposition to whoever wins. Once again, we will have to choose who is the least worst.”

Whoever is victorious in April will face significant challenges.

Ecuador continues to grapple with rampant crime, as drug cartels battle for control of lucrative trafficking routes through its ports. Kidnappings and murders remain daily occurrences.

The country is also struggling with high unemployment, a weak economy, and an energy crisis that caused blackouts of up to 14 hours last year.

Noboa has pledged to address these issues by creating jobs, attracting investment, and increasing renewable energy production.

Meanwhile, Gonzalez has emphasised the need for economic reform, social investment, and a stronger focus on tackling poverty.

Polls opened at 7am local time (12:00 GMT) on Sunday and will close 10 hours later (22:00 GMT).

Fifteen  candidates are challenging hard-right incumbent President Daniel Noboa, the 37-year-old son of a billionaire banana magnate who ascended to power just 14 months ago. His top challenger is left-wing lawmaker Luisa Gonzalez, a 47-year-old protege of former President Rafael Correa.

Gonzalez will have to dramatically outperform pre-election polls to beat frontrunner Noboa, whose iron-fisted – or “mano dura” – approach to crime is considered by experts a key factor in his projected lead.

If no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, or 40 percent with a 10-point lead on the nearest rival, there will be a second-round run-off on April 13.

The campaigns have largely focused on concerns about the slumping economy and cartel turf wars that have turned Ecuador from one of the safest countries in the world to one of the most dangerous.

Noboa, first elected in 2023 to finish out his predecessor’s term, says his deployment of the military on the streets and within prisons has helped reduce violent deaths by 15 percent, led to a drastic fall in prison violence, and facilitated the capture of major gang leaders.

“Today, Ecuador has changed and wants to keep changing, it wants to consolidate its triumph,” Noboa said at a closing campaign rally on Thursday in the capital, Quito. “This Sunday, reclaim your ability to dream.”

But the president’s rivals have said more needs to be done to fight the drug trade-related crime that has rocked Ecuador in recent years.

Gonzalez says she would respond to crime with military and police operations, pursue allegedly corrupt judges and prosecutors and implement a social spending plan in the most violent areas.

“We can’t talk about controlling violence without thinking of social justice, of building an Ecuador with peace, not with war,” said Gonzalez. “We are moving toward this transformation with each one of you … we’ll save ourselves, together.”

One of the world’s youngest leaders, Noboa has bet his political future on a tough approach to crime, which has grown rampant as rival gangs fight over territory for cocaine smuggling.

During his first term, he declared a state of emergency, deployed the army across the country and gathered extraordinary executive powers to curb the violence.

Human rights groups believe that Noboa’s aggressive use of the armed forces has led to abuses, including the murder of four boys whose charred bodies were found near an army base.

But analysts say Noboa may have the edge, as rising cartel violence and record-high homicide rates continue to fuel support for strongman leadership.

“Our research shows that the majority of voters want a sort of dictatorship, they want that iron fist whatever the ideology behind it is,” analyst Omar Maluk told Al Jazeera.

“They still want a strong man who shows no weakness or sensibilities, even if these measures have mostly failed so far, because this January, Ecuador reached a world record of 700 killings in a single month.”

The security crisis has hit the economy, which likely entered a recession last year.

Noboa has been forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund to build a $4bn fiscal war chest.

Gonzalez, easing fears that she may scrap the IMF deal if elected, said on Saturday that the United Nations agency was “welcome” to help, so long as it does not insist on policies that hurt working families.

That is how “Jorge” – not his real name – feels about his neighbourhood of Guayaquil, a city in southern Ecuador.

His father, Marcos Elías León Maruri, was kidnapped there by the Los Tiguerones gang.

A person is killed every two hours in Ecuador and seven are kidnapped daily, according to government figures.

That’s why security is the top issue for voters ahead of the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, in which incumbent Daniel Noboa is being challenged by 15 other candidates.

Whoever wins will be tasked with restoring security to the country, which has gone from being one of the safest to among the most dangerous in the region.

The surge in violence is partly down to Ecuador’s location, and the soaring demand for cocaine in the drug’s biggest markets like the US, the UK, and Europe.

Much of the world’s cocaine, from coca leaves grown in Colombia and Peru, leaves the continent through Ecuador’s ports, and powerful gangs battle to control this lucrative route.

Many of these gangs also engage in kidnapping for ransom.

Mr León Maruri was one of their victims.

Hours after he was seized, Jorge received a text. It read: “I have your father. How much will you pay for the life of your family?”

The next morning, he received a video showing his father tied up with his finger being cut off.

The gang initially demanded $100,000 (£80,000).

Jorge didn’t have it and began negotiating: “They wanted $30,000 or they would cut off another finger.”

Jorge scrambled to offer them $5,000 and his television, PlayStation and car.

Just as the captors had agreed on a handover, police called him. They’d found a corpse resembling his father.

“They had left my father’s body with his finger in a bottle tied to his hand – as a mockery.”

Jorge’s life has since unravelled. He rarely leaves his home, now plastered with CCTV cameras he anxiously monitors.

His wife and daughter have fled the country. He doesn’t go to work any more because the gang know the location.

The current government under President Daniel Noboa has responded to the surge in violence by militarising the streets, giving police heightened powers to use force and raid buildings, and by building new maximum-security prisons.

Jorge supports these measures but criticises the justice system.

“The government is working hard against corruption and equipping the police a lot. But it is of no use if the justice system sets them free. They care more about their rights than ours.”

While some, like Jorge, back Noboa’s measures, others feel they enable human rights abuses – a key tension in this election.

I put this to Major Cristian Aldaz, from the Federal Police, during a raid in the violence-wracked city of Durán, as heavily armed security forces detained a man accused of kidnap and murder.

“Human rights, yes, but what about human rights for good people? We’re in a war. Mafias use machine guns, grenades. The militarisation aims to establish peace,” he says.

Polls still have Noboa as the front-runner, but he has lost some ground in recent months to his main rival, Luisa González of the left-wing Citizen Revolution movement.

On the campaign trail, González has promised human rights training for the security forces – although she also expressed support for the militarisation and tougher policing, including pledging 20,000 new officers.

There is one case, in particular, that has made many Ecuadoreans fear the indiscriminate use of force by the security forces.

Last year, four teenagers were seized by the military over an alleged theft when coming back from playing football.

Their mutilated, burned bodies were later found.

Sixteen soldiers have been detained and charged with the boys’ “forced disappearance” and are under investigation for murder.

They deny this, saying they eventually let the boys go.

The bedroom of two of the boys – Ismael and Josué Arroyo – is typical of that of many teenagers: littered with clothes and football posters.

Their father, Luis, clutches their football boots with raw grief. It’s like he cannot believe that his sons’ feet won’t fill them again.

“Ismael wanted to fulfil his dream to be a professional footballer. A dream taken away by these soldiers,” he cries.

The only identifiable remains left of Ismael and Josué were a finger and a foot.

Luis’s anger and upset at the soldiers is clear.

“It’s not like they caught and executed four dogs. They took four children away. Then went home for dinner.”

“We want justice,” he adds. “Children continue to be taken by the military and the government does nothing.”

The anger the case has stirred may well lead some people to try and punish President Noboa at the ballot box.

Luisa González, the woman hoping to defeat Noboa, has demanded justice and government resignations over the boys’ deaths.

Some voters argue that Noboa’s policies are just not working.

A public transport worker in Durán, who didn’t want to be named, says gangs are calling him to extort money even from within maximum-security prisons.

He describes how gang members force drivers to pay “vacunas” (Spanish for vaccines, the term used to refer to the daily extortion fees) to avoid attacks.

“There are colleagues who have already gone bankrupt. I haven’t worked since they almost killed me,” he tells me.

Other critics point to a poor economy, with particularly high youth unemployment making young people vulnerable to gang recruitment.

Slow responses to last year’s drought also worsened hardships across the country, which relies on hydropower for 80% of its electricity, with power outages lasting up to 14 hours.

One of those affected was Christian Guerrero.

The 40-year-old, who lives in a poorer neighbourhood of Guayaquil, says the constant blackouts broke both his refrigerator and his TV.

He agrees with the opposition that there’s “no plan” to prevent further outages.

The election comes about a year after President Noboa militarised the country through emergency decrees.

For Carlos and Laura Ipaneque it’s also about a year since their son, Carlos Javier Vega, was killed.

He’d panicked at a checkpoint when he heard gunshots and drove off, instead of stopping, causing the military to shoot him dead.

His parents illustrate the lose-lose dilemma many Ecuadoreans feel.

They live in a gated street, their house surrounded by metal bars, terrified of gang violence.

“Crime continues, robberies continue, kidnappings continue, extortions continue,” Laura explains.

But some now fear the crackdown too.

“I don’t want other people to have the pain that we have,” Laura says through tears.

For many voters, this election hinges on whether they see the problem as worse than the cure.