Here’s where things stand on Monday 15 July 2025:

• Donald Trump says he is “very, very unhappy” with Russia and has announced plans to deliver “top-of-the-line” weapons to Ukraine, via Nato
• The US president also says he will introduce “very severe” secondary tariffs of 100% if no ceasefire deal is reached within 50 days
• The announcement came during a meeting with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte in the White House
• Trump’s dramatic U-turn indicates he has run out of patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky says he has had “productive” talks with the US envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, in Kyiv today
• In Russia, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says it’s “very important” talks over Ukraine continue

What are secondary sanctions?

In a nutshell, any country that continues to do trade with Russia will face a big tax to sell their products to the US.

If, for example, India keeps buying oil from Russia – which it has continued to do since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – US companies who purchase goods from India would have to pay a 100% import tax, or tariff, when the products reach American shores.

The idea is it makes these goods so expensive, US businesses would choose to buy them cheaper elsewhere, resulting in lost revenue for India.

The intention is also to hobble Russia’s economy. Theoretically, if it is unable to generate money by selling oil to other nations, it will have less cash to finance the war in Ukraine.

The White House has said it would only implement secondary tariffs on countries if a deal to end the war is not reached with Russia in 50 days.

Countries currently trying to reach a separate trade deal with the US are unlikely to relish a further tax down the line if it comes to that.

What did we just hear from Trump?

The main announcement in US President Donald Trump’s “mega statement” from the Oval Office was the addition of secondary tariffs on Russia of 100% if “we don’t have a deal within 50 days”.

Trump also confirmed what had been previously said – that top of the line weapons would be sent to Ukraine in an operation which would be co-ordinated by Nato.

During the meeting with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte, Trump said he was “very unhappy” with Russia and “disappointed” in President Vladimir Putin, adding that he wanted the war in Ukraine to end.

Rutte described the deal as really big, confirming that the weapons would be paid for by European nations, a decision the alliance’s leader described as “totally logical”. The value of the weapons amounts to billions of dollars.

Trump also said he speaks to Putin a lot, describing the conversations as very pleasant. But he goes on to say that the talk doesn’t mean anything once the missiles start hitting cities.

He also wouldn’t be drawn on how far he was willing to go in response if Putin escalates.

“Don’t get me started on that,” the president responded, adding that he wants to “get the war settled”.

Fifty days gives the Kremlin plenty of room for manoeuvre

On the face of it, today’s announcements from the White House are extremely encouraging for Ukraine.

Kyiv will be even more heartened once it sees the promised defensive weapons turn up inside its borders.

But when it comes to President Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Russia for a ceasefire, well, we have rather been here before and high hopes were collectively dashed by both Presidents Trump and Putin.

In May, the leaders of four major European nations, France, Germany, the UK and Poland, came to Kyiv and laid down a ceasefire ultimatum to Moscow or face crippling sanctions.

But President Putin swiftly averted this by offering ‘direct talks’ with Ukraine in Istanbul, which Trump more or less ordered Ukraine’s leader to attend. He duly did, Putin didn’t show up and Trump did nothing.

Net effect: the ceasefire ultimatum went nowhere.

This time may be different. Donald Trump is, at least in public, venting his frustration with Vladimir Putin.

But 50 days gives the Kremlin plenty of room for manoeuvre. Time, in other words, in which to come up with a counter offer that forestalls the threatened sanctions.

At the present rate of fire, 50 days also theoretically gives Russia time to launch up to a further 25,000 drones and missiles at Ukraine during its nightly bombardments.

A dramatic foreign policy about-face for Trump

Back in April, Donald Trump publicly wondered whether Russian President Vladimir Putin was sincerely interested in ending the war in Ukraine, as he continued a bombing campaign that included targeting civilian structures.

“It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war; he’s just tapping me along,” he posted on his Truth Social social media platform.

Although he initially set a two-week deadline, it appears that nearly three months later the American president has finally run out of patience.

He has promised new US arms shipments to Ukraine, paid for by Nato, and threatened substantial new tariffs on Russia and those who do business with Moscow.

Although Trump was not clear under what authority he would institute these new sanctions, Congress appears poised to enact new legislation that would give him new ways to penalise Russian intransigence.

It all amounts to a dramatic foreign policy about-face for a man who had promised a quick peace and seemed to view Ukraine, not Russia, as the primary obstacle.

The last time Trump executed such a sudden shift – on last month’s US military strikes on Iran – non-interventionists in his base balked.

This Russia move will once again test the president’s will and the loyalty of those who have taken his “America first” rhetoric to heart.

Don’t ask me a question like that – Trump

President Trump is asked how far he is willing to go in response if Putin was to escalate matters.

“Don’t ask me a question like that,” Trump snaps in response, adding he “wants to get the war settled”.

“Ultimately, having a strong Europe is a very good thing,” Trump continues.

Trump and Rutte’s talk to the media has now finished. We’ll continue to bring you the latest reaction and analysis right here on this page.

Russia should focus on trade rather than war – Trump

Trump says Moscow needs to get Russia’s economy back on track.

He says Russia has “tremendous potential” and adds that it should use its resources for trade rather than a war.

“I speak to him a lot,” Trump says of Russia’s President Putin.

He says the conversations are very pleasant, but adds the talk “doesn’t mean anything” once missiles hit cities.

Moscow stock exchange jumps sharply after Trump’s announcement

The Moscow stock exchange index has just risen sharply following Donald Trump’s announcement on measures against Russia.

Analysts say this may be because of the fact that investors were expecting Trump to pledge even harsher measures.

Previously, reports indicated that secondary tariffs of 500% were planned.

Today, the US president announced secondary tariffs of 100%, to be implemented within 50 days if no ceasefire deal is agreed.

Trump’s top team joins president in the Oval Officepublished at 17:4117:41

We can bring you some of the latest photos from inside the White House’s Oval Office, where US President Trump and Nato chief Mark Rutte are currently holding a news conference.

Trump’s top team: Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth are present and looking on as the news conference unfolds.

Missiles and ammunition are part of the deal – Nato chief

Trump is asked if it Patriot missiles are being sent to Ukraine or Patriot batteries.

“Everything. It’s everything,” he replies.

The president elaborates, saying that countries will send their own Patriots to Ukraine, with the US sending those countries replacements.

Nato chief Rutte follows up by saying the whole deal is also about “missiles, ammunition”.

We should have had a deal done long ago – Trump

On potential tariffs against Russia, Trump says secondary tariffs can be imposed against Russia without either the House or the Senate.

When asked about calls for a 500% tariff on Russia, he says that the number does not matter after a certain point and that 100% levies will serve the purpose.

The US president says he felt he had a deal with Russia on the Ukraine war “about four times. And here we are still talking”.

“I thought we should have had a deal done a long time ago, but it just keeps going on and on an on,” he says.

Trump adds that a lot of Russian soldiers and Ukrainians are dying.

Trump praises Nato’s new 5% defence spending pledge

Trump goes on to praise the Nato defence alliance, mentioning recent agreements where countries upped their contributions on defence and security-related spending from 2% of a country’s GDP to 5% by 2035.

He says that a lot of progress has been made since a recent Nato summit in the Netherlands.

The US president says they “made a lot of friends over there” and says some of the countries are “great people”, and that “for the most part, very solid, strong countries”.

Ukrainians continue to fight with tremendous courage – Trump

Trump says Ukrainians “continue to fight with tremendous courage” but are losing equipment.

Nato’s chief Mark Rutte chimes in and says Russia bombing cities is not for “military goals” but to create panic.

Billions of dollars of military equipment will be sent to Ukraine – Trump

Trump again lists a series of international conflicts he claims to have solved, and repeats that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would not have happened if he had been president in 2022.

The US president says he used to speak to his Russian equivalent, Vladimir Putin, often and could see a war coming.

“It’s all talk until missiles go into Kyiv,” he says, adding that it has “got to stop”.

He says billions of dollars of military equipment will now be distributed to Ukraine.

Ukraine can get hold of ‘massive numbers of military equipment’ – Nato chief

Nato’s chief continues by saying it means Ukraine can get its hands on “really massive numbers of military equipment” for air defence, missiles and ammunitions.

Mark Rutte adds that it’s great news for Ukraine, thanking President Trump.

US will send ‘top-of-the-line weapons’ to Nato

Trump says the distribution of the weapons to Ukraine will be co-ordinated by Nato.

“We’re going to make top-of-the-line weapons” and send them to Nato, the US president says.

Nato will then send them where they are needed, he adds.

We want war in Ukraine to end – Trump

Trump says he wants to see the war in Ukraine end, adding that he’s “disappointed” with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

The US president says the US makes the best equipment, the best missiles and “the best everything”.

He says they will be sending the weapons to Nato and adds that “they will be paying for them”.

US will impose ‘very severe tariffs’ on Russia in 50 days if no Ukraine peace deal

The US president goes on to say he is “very unhappy” with Russia over the war in Ukraine.

“We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days,” he says.

He calls them secondary tariffs and says they will be 100%.

Trump and Nato chief meeting under way

After a delay to the start, Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte’s meeting with Donald Trump has just begun in the White House Oval Office.

Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are there too. Trump starts by saying it’s an honour to have Rutte here.

Stick with us and we’ll bring you any updates as soon as we get them.

If Trump hates one thing above all… it’s the notion of the US being ripped off

If President Trump hates one thing above all, it’s the notion that the USA is being ripped off.

It’s a perception that’s long informed his attitude to the war in Ukraine. In the president’s view, there’s no reason why Washington should help to protect Ukraine without being properly compensated.

That’s why today’s anticipated announcement is significant.

Not just because it marks the first time since returning to office that Trump will have made fresh US weapons available. But because, thanks to months of tortuous negotiations, the US will sell weapons to fellow Nato members who will then make them available to Kyiv.

Ukraine will get the weapons. The US will make money. Everyone is happy.

“We’re sending weapons to Nato and Nato is paying for those weapons, 100%,” the president told NBC News last week.

Strictly speaking, it’s not Nato itself which is buying the weapons or making them available, but Nato members.

At the same time, Ukraine’s President Zelensky says his officials are discussing a range of joint projects with European partners which will see direct investment in Ukraine’s growing defence industry, as well as weapons production at sites outside Ukraine.

Senate bill seeks to pressure Russia to engage with peace talks

As Trump ramped up his criticism of the Kremlin in recent days, a sweeping Russia sanctions bill has been gaining steam in the Senate.

In April, senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal led 50 senators in introducing a bipartisan bill to pressure Putin to engage in peace talks.

The bill would introduce sanctions against Russia if the country refused to engage in negotiations with Ukraine or takes military action that undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty.

It would also impose a 500% tariff on imported goods from countries that buy Russian products like oil and uranium.

“The dominating view in the United States Senate is that Russia is the aggressor, and that this horrific war and Putin’s aggression must end now and be deterred in the future,” Graham said in a press release.

“We share President Trump’s frustration with Russia when it comes to obtaining a ceasefire, and support President Trump’s desire to achieve a lasting, just and honourable peace,” he added.

Trump and Nato chief expected to speak from White House soon

We are just waiting to hear from US President Donald Trump and Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Their bilateral meeting in the White House is expected to start shortly.

Stick with us and we’ll bring you the latest updates.

What happened during the Nato chief’s last White House visit?

Today’s visit to the White House isn’t Nato Secretary General’s Mark Rutte’s first trip to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

He last came on 13 March, under remarkably different circumstances. That meeting, which came just weeks after Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky’s infamous Oval Office meeting, came at a time in which Trump and the White House continued to insist that a ceasefire was perhaps just around the corner.

In an interview with Bloomberg shortly afterwards, Rutte called it “very positive” and said he felt there was an “absolutely clear commitment” towards the Nato alliance from Trump.

“I think good things are going to happen,” Trump told reporters in the room. “I really do”.

While he called the possibility of a 30-day ceasefire a “very smart plan”, Rutte was also more cautious in his language.

“We are absolutely not there yet,” he said.

As we’ve been reporting, today’s meeting also comes after Nato member states committed to raise their defence spending to 5% of GDP, which is something Trump has long called for.

Trump says US has been giving other countries ‘free ride’ on defence

In a new post of his Truth Social social media platform, President Trump says the US has been “ripped off” on trade and military spending for decades, claiming it has cost the country trillions of dollars.

“Countries should sit back and say: thank you for the many-years-long free ride, but we know you now have to do what’s right for America. We should respond by saying: thank you for understanding the situation we are in. Greatly appreciated!” he wrote.

Since he took office, Trump has been putting pressure on US allies to up their spending, specifically on defence.

Much of his criticism has been focused on Nato member states, of which the US has historically ranked among the highest in terms of military spending.

In response, Nato’s 32 members have agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defence and security by 2035.

Four killed in Russian strikes on Sumy, Ukraine’s regional governor says

Four people have been killed by Russian strikes in Sumy, which borders Russia in north-eastern Ukraine, the region’s administrator says.

“The number of injured people as a result of an enemy UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] strike on a medical facility in Sumy has increased to four”, Oleg Grigorov says on social media.

Earlier on today, the Ukrainian state emergency service said two people had been killed and four more injured by Russian strikes on the region.

Pictures released by the emergency service show firefighters tackling burning buildings in the area.

What’s been happening?

As we’ve been reporting, we’re expecting a “major” statement from Donald Trump later today, which could well be about the war in Ukraine.

But if you’ve just joined us, or are in need of a quick catch-up, here’s the latest:

• Volodymyr Zelensky has just met with the US envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, in Kyiv. The pair enjoyed “productive” talks on strengthening Ukrainian defences, Zelensky says
• The comments come after Donald Trump suggested last night that the US would be sending Patriot missile defence systems to Ukraine
• US President Trump is due to meet Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte shortly, at 10:00 local time (15:00 BST)
• Meanwhile, Trump’s exasperation with Vladimir Putin is becoming increasingly clear, our White House reporter writes. The US president says Putin “talks nice but then he bombs everybody in the evening”
• However, Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says it’s very important the US continues mediation efforts, over Ukraine

Weapons and ceasefire prospects discussed with US envoy, Ukraine says

We’ve got a little more detail from Ukrainian President Zelensky’s meeting today with the US envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

In a statement, the Ukrainian president’s office says the pair have been discussing the prospect of a ceasefire, as well as the purchase of weapons to defend Ukraine.

It describes how the meeting “also focused on the overall front-line situation” as well as “the needs of Ukrainian warriors”, for whom Kellogg expressed his respect.

The statement also says after Trump suggested the US would be sending Patriot missile defence systems to Ukraine, Zelensky “confirmed Ukraine’s readiness to purchase American weapons, particularly air defence systems”.

“The parties also discussed joint drone production, the possibility of direct purchases of Ukrainian UAVs by the United States, and the potential for arms procurement in co-operation with European partners,” it adds.

Trump urged by senators to sanction Russia further

We still don’t have clear and precise details of what President Trump plans to announce later today. But some lawmakers have been vocally pushing him to announce additional sanctions on Russia.

One bipartisan bill, which has the support of 85 of 100 US senators, would levy extremely high tariffs of up to 500% on imports from countries that purchase Russian oil, gas and uranium.

One of the bill’s authors, South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham, has repeatedly described those tariffs as a “sledgehammer” that could bring Russia to the negotiating table.

“We’re going after the people who keep Putin in business, and additional sanctions on Russia itself,” Graham told CBS News, the BBC’s US partner, adding “that’s the money Putin used to prosecute the war”.

Additionally, some lawmakers have hinted that the US, together with European allies, could access frozen Russian assets, including $5bn (£3.7bn) frozen by US authorities.

This money could then be used in a trust account for Ukraine to use.

The step, however, would be unprecedented. No US president has ever taken the central bank assets of a foreign country that the US is not at war with.

‘Positive signs’ on air defence system sales, Germany says

Germany’s defence ministry says there are very positive signs from Washington on the sale of Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine.

A spokesperson says that talks are now being held on the logistics of the deal, which examines, among other things, “how many systems there will be, who will take them over and how they will be financed.”

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius will meet his US counterpart Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon later today.

Air raid sirens heard in Kyiv moments after meeting with US special envoy

An air raid alert sounded almost as soon as pictures were released of President Zelensky meeting the US special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

Ukraine says it was a Russian fighter jet taking off.

The alert was over in minutes, but underlines – particularly to VIP visitors like Kellogg – the ongoing threat in the skies over Ukraine.

Ukrainians are used to these alerts, many have a smartphone app which warns them, and you can hear the public sirens blaring out.

North Korea now a vital source of ammunition for Russia

While the Trump administration ponders the wisdom of sending more weapons to Ukraine, one of Russia’s most important allies is upping the scale of its involvement.

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, has offered his “unconditional support” to Moscow, according to state media reports following a visit to Pyongyang by Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.

Last year, North Korea sent an estimated 11,000 troops to join the fight against Ukraine.

Earlier this month, some reports suggested that Pyongyang might send another 25,000 to 30,000 troops.

But North Korea has also become a vital source of ammunition for Russia.

Last week, the head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, told Bloomberg News that North Korea was supplying up to 40% of the ammunition Russia is using against Ukraine.

Ukraine says Russia is making use of a variety of North Korean long range artillery systems, including howitzers and multiple launch rocket systems.

Here’s where things stand on Saturday 21 June 2025:

Fighting

• Drones and missiles launched by Russia overnight have damaged energy infrastructure in central Ukraine’s Kremenchuk district in Poltava, said local military authorities.
• One person was injured in the attack, according to Volodymyr Kohut, the region’s military governor, who did not provide further details on the extent of the damage.
• Russia had targeted the district’s refinery, according to a report by online news outlet Strana.ua.

Politics and diplomacy

• Ukraine and Russia exchange more prisoners of war, officials from both countries said, the second swap in two days under an agreement struck in Turkiye earlier this month. All the captured soldiers were wounded, ill or under 25 years old. Neither side said how many soldiers had been freed.
• At Russia’s flagship economic forum in Saint Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin said he did not “rule out” his forces taking control of Ukraine’s northeastern city of Sumy as part of efforts to create a buffer zone along the border.
• The Sumy region is not one of the regions Moscow has formally annexed, although Russian forces have recently made inroads there for the first time in three years, with Putin claiming his troops had advanced up to 12km (7 miles) in the region.
• In a string of hawkish remarks, Putin also appeared to repeat his denial of Ukrainian statehood. Ukraine said Putin’s comments showed “disdain” for the peace process.
• The German military considers Russia to be an “existential risk” to the country and Europe, according to a Spiegel news magazine report that cites a new Bundeswehr strategy paper. Russia is verifiably preparing for a conflict with NATO, particularly by strengthening forces in western Russia “at the borders with NATO,” the report cites the strategy paper as saying. Germany can only counter this threat “with a consistent development of military and society-wide capabilities,” the document concludes.
• Putin has reaffirmed Moscow’s opposition to the spread of weapons of mass destruction, including any potential acquisition by Iran. Putin told Sky News Arabia that Russia supports Iran’s right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, emphasising that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has found no evidence suggesting Tehran seeks to build nuclear weapons. Putin also stated that Russia is prepared to assist Iran in the development of its civilian nuclear programme.

Economy

• At the economic forum in St Petersburg, Putin also urged officials not to let Russia fall into recession “under any circumstances”, as some in his own government warned of a hit to economic growth. Economists have warned for months of a slowdown in the Russian economy, with the country posting just 1.4 percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025, the weakest pace in two years.
• A decision by the OPEC+ group of leading global oil producers to speed up production now looks far-sighted and justified amid the Middle East conflict, said Igor Sechin, head of Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft, at the forum. Sechin also said that there will be no oil glut in the long term despite the production rise, and that the European Union seeks to reduce Russia’s oil cap to $45 to improve the profitability of its purchases, not to cut Russia’s budget revenues.

32 nations but only one man matters – Nato’s summit is all about Trump

32 nations but only one man matters – Nato’s summit is all about Trump

Nato summits tend to be “pre-cooked”, not least to present a united front.

Secretary General Mark Rutte has already settled on the menu for their meeting at The Hague: one that will avoid a row with Nato’s most powerful member, the US.

A commitment to increase defence spending by European allies is the dish that President Donald Trump wants served – and that’s exactly what he’ll be getting. Though there will inevitably be the added ingredients of compromise and fudge.

Nor will the summit be able to paper over the cracks between Trump and many of his European allies on trade, Russia and the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

The US president, whose mantra is America First, is not a huge fan of multinational organisations.

He has been highly critical of Nato too – even questioning its very foundation of collective defence. In Trump’s first term, at his first Nato summit, he berated European allies for not spending enough and owing the US “massive amounts of money”.

On that message he has at least been consistent.

Mark Rutte, who has a good relationship with the US president, has worked hard to give him a win.

The summit takes place at the World Forum in The Hague over two days, on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Now the main discussions will last just three hours and the summit statement is being reduced to five paragraphs, reportedly because of the US president’s demands.

Trump is one of 32 leaders from the Western defensive alliance who are coming, along with the heads of more than a dozen partner countries.

Nato summit security so far cost €183.4m (£155m; $210m)

Dutch police have mounted their biggest ever security operation for the most expensive Nato summit so far, at a cost of €183.4m (£155m; $210m).

Some have suggested the brevity of the summit is in part to cater to the US president’s attention span and dislike of long meetings. But a shorter summit with fewer subjects discussed will, more importantly, help hide divisions.

Ed Arnold, of the defence think tank Rusi, says Trump likes to be the star of the show and predicts he’ll be able to claim that he’s forced European nations to act.

In truth he’s not the first US president to criticise allies’ defence spending. But he’s had more success than most. Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to Nato, admits that some European governments do not like the way Trump’s gone about it – demanding that allies spend 5% of their GDP on defence.

Europe still only accounts for 30% of Nato’s total military spending. Volker says many Europeans now admit they that “we needed to do this, even if it’s unfortunate that it took such a kick in the pants”.

Some European nations are already boosting their defence spending to 5% of their GDP. Most are the countries living in close proximity to Russia – such as Poland, Estonia and Lithuania.

It’s not just Trump who’s been piling on the pressure. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing a response.

But in reality many Nato members will struggle to meet the new target. A few haven’t met the goal of 2%, set more than a decade ago.

Allies to increase their core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP

Rutte’s compromise formula is for allies to increase their core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% towards defence-related expenditure.

But the definition of defence-related expenditure appears to be so vague that it might be rendered meaningless. Rutte says it could include the cost of industry of infrastructure – building bridges, roads and railways. Ed Arnold, of Rusi, says it’ll inevitably lead to more “creative accounting”.

Even if, as expected, the new spending target is approved, some nations may have little intent of reaching it – by 2032 or 2035. The timescale’s still unclear. Spain’s prime minister has already called it unreasonable and counterproductive. Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t even been able to say when the UK will spend 3% of its GDP of defence. The UK prime minister only said that it was an ambition some time in the next parliament. However, given the UK government’s stated policy of putting Nato at the heart of the UK’s defence policy, Sir Keir will have to back the new plan.

The real danger is to interpret the demand for an increase in defence spending as arbitrary, a symbolic gesture – or just bowing to US pressure. It’s also driven by Nato’s own defence plans on how it would respond to an attack by Russia. Rutte himself has said that Russia could attack a Nato country within five years.

Those defence plans remain secret. But Rutte’s already set out what the Alliance is lacking. In a speech earlier this month he said Nato needed a 400% increase in its air and missile defences: thousands more armoured vehicles and tanks, and millions more artillery shells.

Most member states, including the UK, do not yet meet their Nato capability commitments. It’s why Sweden plans to double the size of its army and Germany is looking to boost its troop numbers by 60,000.

The plans go into granular detail as to how the Alliance will defend its Eastern flank should Russia invade. In a recent speech, the head of the US Army in Europe, General Christopher Donahue, highlighted the need to defend Polish and Lithuanian territory near the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. He said the Alliance had looked at its existing capabilities and “realised very quickly they are not sufficient”.

Yet, strangely, specific discussions about Russia and the war in Ukraine will be muted. It’s the one big issue that now divides Europe and America. Kurt Volker says, under Trump, the US “does not see Ukrainian security as essential to European security but our European allies do”.

Trump has already shattered Nato’s united front by talking to Putin and withholding military support to Ukraine.

Ed Arnold says contentious issues have been stripped from the summit. Not least to avoid a schism with Trump. Leaders were supposed to discuss a new Russia strategy, but it’s not on the agenda.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited to the NATO summit dinner and not the main discussions

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited to the summit dinner, but he won’t be taking part in the main discussions of the North Atlantic Council.

Rutte will be hoping that his first summit as secretary general will be short and sweet. But with Trump at odds with most of his allies on Russia, the greatest threat facing the Alliance, there’s no guarantee it’ll go according to plan.

Secretary general Mark Rutte said Moscow was “preparing for long-term confrontation with Ukraine and with us”, describing the current security situation as the worst in his lifetime.

“We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years,” he said in his first major speech since becoming secretary general in October, urging members to “turbocharge” their defence spending.

His comments come weeks before president-elect Donald Trump takes office, having previously suggested the US would not protect Nato allies that were failing to spend enough on defence.

Nato members have pledged to spend at least 2% of the value of their economies – measured by GDP – on defence per year by 2024.

But speaking at an event in Brussels, the former Dutch prime minister said “a lot more” would be needed as danger “[moves] towards us at full speed”.

He said European members had spent upwards of 3% of GDP on defence during the Cold War.

“If we don’t spend more together now to prevent war, we will pay a much, much, much higher price later to fight it,” he said.

He added that Russia’s economy was “on a war footing”, with its defence spend by 2025 set to be “a third of Russia’s state budget – and the highest level since the Cold War”.

Russia has significantly increased its defence spending since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with record levels approved for 2025.

Rutte spoke at a critical juncture in the war in Ukraine, with Russian forces grinding forward in the east of the country. By November, Moscow had seized six times as much Ukrainian territory in 2024 compared with the whole of 2023.

While the average defence spend for Nato members in Europe and Canada is estimated at 2%, not all meet the target.

Trump said in February that he would “encourage” Russia to attack any Nato member that fails to pay its bills as part of the Western military alliance.

Nato’s 32 members in Europe and North America agree that if one member is attacked, the others should help defend them.

Speaking to the BBC following his speech on Thursday, Rutte said: “Donald Trump was completely right when in his first term he forced us to spend more, he was successful, we are considerably spending more than before he became president, so in that sense he was totally right.

“This is why some in Nato call Rutte “The Trump Whisperer”. And that, they say, is a very big reason he was chosen as Nato secretary general.

Back in 2018, then President Trump famously threatened the US would “go our own way” if other Nato members – essentially in Europe – did not spend more on their own militaries. Then Dutch Prime Minister Rutte was credited with reasoning with the US president, assuring him that spending had already gone up and that he, President Trump, was the reason for it.

And now Trump is poised to return to the White House and Rutte wants to keep the US committed to Nato and European defence. So Rutte’s messaging to Trump is once again to flatter him.

As a former prime minister, Rutte well knows that Europe’s leaders hesitate to spend much more on defence because voters across the continent have other priorities – rising living costs, health, migration.

That, he told the BBC, is why he aimed his speech today as his “plea” to “people”.”I’m really pleading directly to the one billion people living in Nato territory, and particularly in Canada and Europe, to ask them to help me,” Rutte said.

“Call up your politicians, tell them that you agree that yes it is difficult, it will mean somewhat less spending on some other items, but that you want them, your politicians, to prioritise defence, because this is long-term crucial…”My plea here is if you have children, grandchildren, if you think our way of life should be preserved, the democracy, our values, then we have to prioritise defence.

“And if we don’t, in four or five years we are in real difficulty.”