Trump and Modi have developed a strong personal rapport over the years, marked by high-profile meetings and joint appearances.

Since their first meeting in Washington in 2017, their bond has grown through other events, including joint appearances at massive rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad. Their chemistry stems from shared worldviews and politics and a mutual strategic focus on countering China, a concern that has also strengthened the broader US-India partnership.

Not surprisingly, Trump has often criticised India, but he has never criticised Modi.

And so, during Modi’s visit, the two leaders will probably spend time mapping out next steps in the US-India strategic partnership, which is already in a good place.

Modi will reportedly meet several members of Trump’s cabinet, as well as US business leaders and members of the Indian-American community.

He may also meet SpaceX and Tesla chief Elon Musk. Modi, keen to scale up India’s burgeoning electric vehicles sector, would be happy if Musk opened a Tesla factory in India.

And yet the Trump-Modi conviviality and heady talk of strategic partnership may mask a sobering reality: during Modi’s visit, the relationship’s transactional side will come into sharp relief with each leader, especially Trump, armed with an array of demands.

Delhi knows Trump well. Many of Modi’s current cabinet ministers also served during his previous term, which overlapped with part of the first Trump administration. That familiarity has been on display since Trump’s inauguration last month: Delhi has publicly signalled its willingness to lower tariffs, take back undocumented Indian immigrants and buy American oil.

It has already lowered some tariffs and taken back 104 undocumented Indians, with the first plane arriving in India last week. These pre-emptive steps are meant to prevent Trump from making specific demands of India and to reduce the likelihood of tensions with the new Trump administration.

Still, Trump may ask Modi to make additional tariff reductions, to further chip away at a US goods and services trade deficit with India that has approached $46bn (£37.10bn) in recent years. But an obstacle could become an opportunity: Modi may call on Trump to enter into bilateral talks on an economic partnership accord meant to reduce tariffs on both sides.

In recent years, Delhi has shown a growing willingness to pursue trade deals. The Trump administration may prove to be a more willing interlocutor than the Biden administration, which imposed heavy environmental and labour-related conditions on new trade agreements.

Trump may also ask Modi to take back more undocumented Indians. Given that some estimates put the number at more than 700,000 – the third-largest such group in the US – this will be a difficult and delicate issue for Delhi to navigate.

Last week, India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told parliament that the government was working with the US to ensure Indian citizens were not mistreated while being deported after reports of them being shackled sparked anger.

Trump may also call on Modi to buy more American oil.

In 2021, India was the top destination for American oil exports, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine brought major changes in global oil markets and prompted Delhi to ramp up imports of cheap oil from close partner Russia. The price point will determine how much oil India is willing to buy from the US.

Modi may also come with his own energy ask: invest in Indian nuclear energy. Delhi is amending its nuclear liability law and has announced a new nuclear energy mission, in an attempt to sharpen international interest in the fuel.

India aims to meet half its energy requirements through renewable energy by 2030. Asking Trump to invest in nuclear fuel amounts to a potential happy medium: it is cleaner than fossil fuels, but far removed from the solar and wind power that may not strike the Trump administration as an attractive investment.

Technology will probably be discussed as well.

This was a fast-growing space for bilateral relations in the Biden era, thanks to the 2022 implementation of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), which both sides view as a new cornerstone for strategic partnership. iCET is meant to be directly overseen by the two national security advisers – to avoid getting bogged down in bureaucracy – which means they must each be personally invested in it.

Modi will likely seek assurances from Trump and his National Security Adviser Mike Waltz that they remain committed to this. Given Washington’s focus on countering China by making India a bigger part of tech global supply chains, they probably will.

Also on the tech co-operation front, Modi may make a pitch for Trump to maintain the H-1B visa regime. These visas for highly skilled foreign workers, heavily criticised by some influential Trump supporters, have been awarded to large numbers of Indian tech employees in the US.

Other countries may also come up during Modi’s conversations in Washington. Iran could loom especially large.

Delhi is partnering with Tehran to develop a port in Chabahar city – part of a broader Indian strategy to strengthen connectivity links with Central Asia, via Iran and Afghanistan. But last week, the US administration released a presidential memorandum outlining Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, which hints at removing sanctions waivers for those conducting commercial activities in Chabahar. Modi may seek clarity on what this means for Delhi.

Trump may also gauge Modi’s position on a big foreign policy priority: ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Delhi has a strong interest in these wars winding down. Modi’s position on the war in Ukraine – calling for an end to the conflict without criticising Putin or Russia – echoes that of Trump.

India’s special relationship with Russia and close ties with Israel may prompt Trump to see if Modi would want to play a third-party mediator role as well. Modi would probably be comfortable doing so only if the parties are receptive to outside mediation.

But despite some potentially delicate discussions this week, both leaders will want to maintain a positive tone.

In that regard, the Indo-Pacific Quad will be just what the doctor ordered.

Trump strongly backs this group which consists of the US, India, Japan and Australia and focuses on countering Beijing.

In his first term, Trump elevated the Quad’s annual meetings to the foreign minister level and Biden elevated them further to the leaders’ level.

India is scheduled to host this year’s Quad meeting and Modi may invite Trump to Delhi to attend this.

Trump reportedly is not a big fan of international travel but India is a trip he will probably be keen to make – to deepen his personal relationship with Modi and to advance a multifaceted bilateral partnership that extends well beyond the transactionalism that will carry the day in Washington this week.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won or is leading in 47 seats in the 70-member legislative assembly, while the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is ahead in 23 seats, according to data from the Election Commission of India (EC).

A party that wins more than the halfway mark of 35 seats can form the government.

“Development wins, good governance triumphs,” Modi wrote on X, adding that hisparty would leave “no stone unturned” in developing Delhi .

The election was a battle of prestige for both the BJP and AAP, given Delhi’s symbolic importance as the country’s capital.

The city, a federally-administered territory, was governed by the AAP since 2013, with voters backing its strong record of welfarism. But the party and its leaders have faced several challenges recently, with leaders embroiled in corruption allegations which they have denied.

For the BJP, securing Delhi represents more than just electoral success – it marks a crucial foothold in the nation’s capital after being out of power there since 1998.

The party, which has had recent election successes in other states, such as Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, threw resources at the Delhi campaign, with Modi as well as Home Minister Amit Shah attending events.

Congress, the main opposition party at the national level, was also in the race, but is unlikely to win even one seat.

The party governed Delhi from 1998 to 2013, but was ousted over allegations of corruption that saw voters turn to AAP instead. It has failed to make a mark since.

Experts say that the win in politically crucial Delhi will reinforce Modi’s popularity among Indian voters after his party lost its outright majority in last year’s general election.

The defeat is a big blow to the AAP, a much smaller party which was praised in its early years in power for focusing on improving education and health facilities in the city. It also governs Punjab state, but retaining Delhi would have been a triumph for the beleaguered party which now faces questions about its future.

On Saturday, the biggest upsets for AAP included top leaders Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia losing in the New Delhi and Jangpura constituencies, respectively.

Incumbent Chief Minister Atishi managed only a narrow victory from the Kalkaji constituency.

In a video message on X, Kejriwal said he and his party “humbly accepted” the verdict of the people and congratulated the BJP on its win.

“I hope they live up to the expectations of the people who voted for them,” he said.

More than 60% of eligible voters cast their ballot in the election on Wednesday. Most exit polls had predicted an absolute majority for the BJP, although such predictions have gone wrong in the past.

Much of the BJP campaign targeted Kejriwal, an anti-graft activist, who – along with Sisodia -had been jailed over the past two years in a corruption case relating to a now-scrapped alcohol sales policy. Both leaders, who deny all the charges, separately got bail last year after spending months in jail.

Kejriwal has accused Modi’s party of carrying out a “political vendetta” against him and the AAP, which the BJP denies.

The Supreme Court’s bail conditions banned him from entering the chief minister’s office or signing files. Kejriwal resigned from the role days after his release from prison.

Other reports say Modi will attend a dinner hosted by the US president on the two-day trip. The dates of the official working visit have yet to be announced.

Modi will be among the first foreign leaders to meet Trump at the White House during his second term. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently in Washington and Japan’s PM Shigeru Ishiba is due this week.

Modi and Trump shared warm relations during the US president’s first term. Last week they held a “productive” phone call and discussed illegal immigration, security and trade ties, the White House said.

Analysts say it will be interesting to see if the bonhomie between the two men will help overcome concerns about trade and immigration.

Trump called Modi a “great leader” last year but also accused India of charging excessive tariffs.

Confirmation of the Indian leader’s visit to Washington came shortly after a US military flight deporting about 100 Indian nationals landed in the state of Punjab.

All those on board are said to have either entered the US illegally, or overstayed their visas.

During last week’s call, Trump said he was sure India “will do the right thing” when it comes to illegal immigration.

He has made the mass deportation of undocumented foreign nationals a key policy. Earlier, Bloomberg reported that 18,000 undocumented Indian migrants living illegally in the US had so far been identified, but the real number is likely to be higher.

According to the Pew Research Center, there were an estimated 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants in the US last year.

India has so far escaped the threat of tariffs on its exports to the US.

In the past however, Trump has called India a “tariff king” and a “big abuser” of trade ties and threatened reciprocal action if Delhi did not reduce taxes on US imports.

India’s recent budget saw duties slashed on a range of goods, including high-end motorcycles like the iconic Harley Davidson.

India’s finance secretary told local media this was a sign the country was “not a tariff king”.

Last week, the Indian foreign ministry said the two countries were working to further deepen their bilateral relations.

Foreign Minister S Jaishankar represented India at Trump’s inauguration ceremony and held talks with his US counterpart Marco Rubio while in Washington.

In November, following Trump’s election victory, Jaishankar said the country was not nervous about working with the US president.