The electoral authorities called it a “technical tie” after the incumbent centre-right Daniel Noboa and his main left-wing challenger Luisa Gonzalez received nearly identical percentages of the vote.

The pair will now face a run-off in April.

The result is far narrower than opinion polls predicted, indicating the second round could be harder to call.

The narrow result also dashed the hopes of Noboa’s supporters, who had been buoyed by an early exit poll suggesting he might clinch victory outright.

The president’s supporters gathered in Quito, waving flags, donning T-shirts with his image and holding life-size cardboard cut-outs of the incumbent president.

These cut-outs, depicting Noboa in various outfits – from suits to tank tops and sunglasses – have become ubiquitous symbols across the country decorating front doors, apartment windows, and even car rooftops.

Noboa’s presidency has been defined by his focus on tackling severe gang violence.

He implemented emergency measures to deploy the military to streets and prisons to curb rising crime.

Many of his supporters hope he will secure a mandate in the run-off to continue his security policies.

“He’s helped us a lot, from when there was gang violence so bad that we couldn’t even go out,” said Fernanda Iza.

The 45-year-old added: “The support of the military he’s introduced – their presence is already helping.

“He has brought us a certain stability. There are many problems still pending, but I hope he continues with his plan.”

Juan Diego Escobar, 16, expressed optimism about Noboa’s chances.

“I think the majority of people who voted for other candidates will prefer to vote for Daniel Noboa in the second round,” he said.

“Noboa handles insecurity well. Crime is fairly well controlled. I think he will also improve the economy.”

Miriam Naranjo said despite being the incumbent, Noboa represented “change”.

She added: “We need the work that he has been doing so far to continue. It’s only been a short time. We were expecting a bigger margin, so we have to work to keep that support for our candidate.”

Despite some successes, such as the capture of some major gang leaders and a slight reduction in prison violence, violent crime remains a major issue.

Violent deaths fell in 2024 but stayed near record levels. In January 2025 alone 750 homicides were reported.

Gonzalez – a protégé of former president Rafael Correa – has criticised Noboa for failing to deliver on key promises, such as boosting the economy, cutting fuel prices, and addressing violent crime.

While she has proposed similar military and police operations to combat crime, her campaign has emphasised increased social spending in Ecuador’s most violent regions.

His critics also accused him of a slow response to a severe drought that led to prolonged power cuts last year.

Noboa also sparked controversy during the campaign by refusing to delegate his presidential duties to Vice President Verónica Abad, citing an electoral law loophole.

This decision became part of a public spat between the two.

Luisa Gonzalez’s supporters see her as a chance for change.

Gonzalo Cajas, 46, said: “Why is there crime? There is poverty. There is hunger. So there should be someone who is really aware of Ecuadorian workers so that the country moves forward.”

Alejandra Tufiño, 42, added: “The country’s security is in pieces. I want change. I’m not saying that she’s going to solve it – but let’s see what happens if we give her a chance.”

Some voters remain disillusioned with both candidates.

Gabriela Cajo, 39, who backed a candidate from the party of assassinated 2023 presidential hopeful Fernando Villavicencio, expressed frustration with the lack of progress on crime.

“Daniel Noboa represents fear, and we represent hope, change. We do not want a state of war, we want peace,” she said.

“I think we are all annoyed with the electoral processes in the country, and the last thing we want is a second round and more expenditure of resources.

“There will be tremendous polarisation. There will be a lot of opposition to whoever wins. Once again, we will have to choose who is the least worst.”

Whoever is victorious in April will face significant challenges.

Ecuador continues to grapple with rampant crime, as drug cartels battle for control of lucrative trafficking routes through its ports. Kidnappings and murders remain daily occurrences.

The country is also struggling with high unemployment, a weak economy, and an energy crisis that caused blackouts of up to 14 hours last year.

Noboa has pledged to address these issues by creating jobs, attracting investment, and increasing renewable energy production.

Meanwhile, Gonzalez has emphasised the need for economic reform, social investment, and a stronger focus on tackling poverty.

That is how “Jorge” – not his real name – feels about his neighbourhood of Guayaquil, a city in southern Ecuador.

His father, Marcos Elías León Maruri, was kidnapped there by the Los Tiguerones gang.

A person is killed every two hours in Ecuador and seven are kidnapped daily, according to government figures.

That’s why security is the top issue for voters ahead of the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, in which incumbent Daniel Noboa is being challenged by 15 other candidates.

Whoever wins will be tasked with restoring security to the country, which has gone from being one of the safest to among the most dangerous in the region.

The surge in violence is partly down to Ecuador’s location, and the soaring demand for cocaine in the drug’s biggest markets like the US, the UK, and Europe.

Much of the world’s cocaine, from coca leaves grown in Colombia and Peru, leaves the continent through Ecuador’s ports, and powerful gangs battle to control this lucrative route.

Many of these gangs also engage in kidnapping for ransom.

Mr León Maruri was one of their victims.

Hours after he was seized, Jorge received a text. It read: “I have your father. How much will you pay for the life of your family?”

The next morning, he received a video showing his father tied up with his finger being cut off.

The gang initially demanded $100,000 (£80,000).

Jorge didn’t have it and began negotiating: “They wanted $30,000 or they would cut off another finger.”

Jorge scrambled to offer them $5,000 and his television, PlayStation and car.

Just as the captors had agreed on a handover, police called him. They’d found a corpse resembling his father.

“They had left my father’s body with his finger in a bottle tied to his hand – as a mockery.”

Jorge’s life has since unravelled. He rarely leaves his home, now plastered with CCTV cameras he anxiously monitors.

His wife and daughter have fled the country. He doesn’t go to work any more because the gang know the location.

The current government under President Daniel Noboa has responded to the surge in violence by militarising the streets, giving police heightened powers to use force and raid buildings, and by building new maximum-security prisons.

Jorge supports these measures but criticises the justice system.

“The government is working hard against corruption and equipping the police a lot. But it is of no use if the justice system sets them free. They care more about their rights than ours.”

While some, like Jorge, back Noboa’s measures, others feel they enable human rights abuses – a key tension in this election.

I put this to Major Cristian Aldaz, from the Federal Police, during a raid in the violence-wracked city of Durán, as heavily armed security forces detained a man accused of kidnap and murder.

“Human rights, yes, but what about human rights for good people? We’re in a war. Mafias use machine guns, grenades. The militarisation aims to establish peace,” he says.

Polls still have Noboa as the front-runner, but he has lost some ground in recent months to his main rival, Luisa González of the left-wing Citizen Revolution movement.

On the campaign trail, González has promised human rights training for the security forces – although she also expressed support for the militarisation and tougher policing, including pledging 20,000 new officers.

There is one case, in particular, that has made many Ecuadoreans fear the indiscriminate use of force by the security forces.

Last year, four teenagers were seized by the military over an alleged theft when coming back from playing football.

Their mutilated, burned bodies were later found.

Sixteen soldiers have been detained and charged with the boys’ “forced disappearance” and are under investigation for murder.

They deny this, saying they eventually let the boys go.

The bedroom of two of the boys – Ismael and Josué Arroyo – is typical of that of many teenagers: littered with clothes and football posters.

Their father, Luis, clutches their football boots with raw grief. It’s like he cannot believe that his sons’ feet won’t fill them again.

“Ismael wanted to fulfil his dream to be a professional footballer. A dream taken away by these soldiers,” he cries.

The only identifiable remains left of Ismael and Josué were a finger and a foot.

Luis’s anger and upset at the soldiers is clear.

“It’s not like they caught and executed four dogs. They took four children away. Then went home for dinner.”

“We want justice,” he adds. “Children continue to be taken by the military and the government does nothing.”

The anger the case has stirred may well lead some people to try and punish President Noboa at the ballot box.

Luisa González, the woman hoping to defeat Noboa, has demanded justice and government resignations over the boys’ deaths.

Some voters argue that Noboa’s policies are just not working.

A public transport worker in Durán, who didn’t want to be named, says gangs are calling him to extort money even from within maximum-security prisons.

He describes how gang members force drivers to pay “vacunas” (Spanish for vaccines, the term used to refer to the daily extortion fees) to avoid attacks.

“There are colleagues who have already gone bankrupt. I haven’t worked since they almost killed me,” he tells me.

Other critics point to a poor economy, with particularly high youth unemployment making young people vulnerable to gang recruitment.

Slow responses to last year’s drought also worsened hardships across the country, which relies on hydropower for 80% of its electricity, with power outages lasting up to 14 hours.

One of those affected was Christian Guerrero.

The 40-year-old, who lives in a poorer neighbourhood of Guayaquil, says the constant blackouts broke both his refrigerator and his TV.

He agrees with the opposition that there’s “no plan” to prevent further outages.

The election comes about a year after President Noboa militarised the country through emergency decrees.

For Carlos and Laura Ipaneque it’s also about a year since their son, Carlos Javier Vega, was killed.

He’d panicked at a checkpoint when he heard gunshots and drove off, instead of stopping, causing the military to shoot him dead.

His parents illustrate the lose-lose dilemma many Ecuadoreans feel.

They live in a gated street, their house surrounded by metal bars, terrified of gang violence.

“Crime continues, robberies continue, kidnappings continue, extortions continue,” Laura explains.

But some now fear the crackdown too.

“I don’t want other people to have the pain that we have,” Laura says through tears.

For many voters, this election hinges on whether they see the problem as worse than the cure.

The State Department said in a statement on X that its government vessels “can now transit the Panama Canal without charge fees, saving the US government millions of dollars a year”.

Responding to the comments, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) said it was “empowered to set tolls and other fees for transiting the canal,” adding that it had “not made any adjustments to them”.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly voiced his desire to retake control of the waterway, which is key to global trade.

The 51-mile (82km) Panama Canal cuts across the Central American nation and is the main link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been on a visit to Latin American countries this week, demanded that Panama make “immediate changes” to what he calls the “influence and control” of China over the canal.

America’s top diplomat said Panama had to act or the US would take necessary measures to protect its rights under a treaty between the two countries.

During a visit to the country, Rubio met Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino, as well as the canal’s administrator, Ricaurte Vásquez Morales.

The ACP said after his visit that it had conveyed its intention to work with the US navy to optimise transit priority for its vessels through the canal.

This commitment for dialogue with Washington remained, it said in a separate statement on Wednesday.

US vessels make up a significant proportion of traffic in the canal. In 2024, 52% of transits through the waterway had ports of origin or destination in the United States, according to the canal’s authorities.

Up to 14,000 ships use the canal each year to avoid a lengthy and costly trip around the tip of South America.

In his inaugural speech, President Trump said he planned to “take back” the canal, alleging that China was operating it and Panama had “broken” a promise to remain neutral.

The plan was strongly rejected by Mulino, who said the key trade route “is and will remain” in the country’s hands.

He also rejected Trump’s allegations about China’s influence, saying there is “no presence of any nation in the world that interferes with our administration”.

Trump recently reiterated his claim. Despite saying earlier this week he was “not happy” with the situation, he acknowledged that Panama had “agreed to certain things”. Mulino has said his country will not continue its membership in China’s infrastructure-building programme, the Belt and Road Initiative.

The US built the canal in the early 20th Century but, after years of protest, President Jimmy Carter signed a treaty with Panama in 1977 to gradually hand back control of the waterway, which Trump has branded “a big mistake”.

The deal was announced after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Salvadorean President Nayib Bukele during his visit to the central American nation.

Bukele – whose iron-fist approach to gangs has won him plaudits from voters but been heavily criticised by human rights groups – said he had offered the US “the opportunity to outsource part of its prison system”.

Rubio said the US was “profoundly grateful” to Bukele, adding that “no country’s ever made an offer of friendship such as this”.

Rubio told reporters: “He has offered to house in his jails dangerous American criminals in custody in our country, including those with US citizenship and legal residency.”

Referring to two of the region’s most notorious transnational crime gangs, Rubio added that El Salvador would also take in deported migrants and “criminals from any nationality, be the MS-13 or Tren de Aragua”.

Bukele later confirmed the offer on X, specifying that “we are willing to take in only convicted criminals (including convicted US citizens) into our mega-prison (CECOT) in exchange for a fee”.

He added that “the fee would be relatively low for the US but significant for us, making our entire prison sustainable”.

Since he came into office in 2019, Bukele has made cracking down on crime his government’s priority.

The newly built maximum-security jail he referred to, Cecot [Terrorism Confinement Centre], is at the centre of his drive to lock up and punish the most violent gang members.

The government celebrated the opening of the jail – which it says can hold up to 40,000 inmates – by releasing photos and videos of shaven-headed and tattooed prisoners stripped down to the waist being frogmarched along its corridors.

The treatment of inmates at Cecot, where scores of inmates are locked up in each windowless cell, has been criticised by rights groups.

But Bukele’s crackdown on crime continues to be very popular with the vast majority of Salvadoreans who say they can go about their lives without threats from gang members for the first time in years.

However, some relatives of the tens of thousands of people which have been rounded up and jailed under emergency measures brought in by Bukele say their loved ones have been wrongfully rounded up in sweeping police round-ups.

Amnesty International has criticised the “gradual replacement of gang violence with state violence” in the country – a criticism dismissed by Bukele, who points out that his hardline approach to crime last February won him re-election to a second term with more than 84% of the votes.

El Salvador was the second stop on Secretary of State Rubio’s first overseas tour as the US top diplomat.

His first stop was Panama, where he demanded that Panama make “immediate changes” to what he called the “influence and control” of China over the Panama Canal.

On Tuesday, he will hold meetings with officials in Costa Rica and Guatemala expected to focus on migration as well as countering Chinese influence in the region.

Since coming to office, US President Donald Trump has focused on speeding up the removal of undocumented migrants, with the promise of “mass deportations”.